US Export Inspection Report shows weak shipments. The USDA Export Inspection Report showed that the US shipped 914,000 tonnes of corn in the week ended April 20, 323,400 tonnes less than a week earlier and 269,000 above the same week last year. With this, the nation increased the deficit of accumulated shipments in relation to the 2021/22 season to 12.55 million tonnes (on April 13, the gap was 11.82 million). Until April 20, the US exported 22.4 million tonnes of corn.
US ethanol production and stocks retreat. According to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US ethanol production dropped to 967,000 barrels per day in the week between April 15 and 21, a contraction of 57,000 on a weekly basis, but 66,000 above the five-year average for the same period. Stocks also dropped to 24.31 million barrels, 987,000 barrels less than a week earlier.
Announcement of sales cancellations to China pressures prices. Last week, through its flash sales system, the USDA announced the cancellation of 550,000 tonnes to China, which would be delivered in 2022/23. The announcement was an important factor pressuring futures last week.
Deficit in export sales volume compared to last season widens once again. In its Export Sales Report, the USDA reported that US net sales totaled 400,000 tonnes for the week ended April 20, 87,500 tonnes higher than a week earlier, but 467,000 lower than the same period of 2022 and 431,000 below the five-year average. As a result, cumulative sales increased to 38.5 million tonnes, but the deficit compared to the 2021/22 season increased from 18.6 million to 19 million tonnes.
US weekly export sales (000 tonnes)
Source: USDA. Design: StoneX.
Grain export agreement through the Black Sea is still on the agents' radar. The continuity of the Black Sea grain export agreement remains in focus, but has not moved the market as much as in previous weeks. Over the last few weeks, Russia has made it clear that it is only interested in renewing the initiative if there is a significant reduction in sanctions against the country. In addition, Poland, Hungary and other eastern European countries intend to maintain the ban on grain imports from Ukraine until the end of 2023, as a way to protect local producers.
Positive outlook for the Brazilian crop puts pressure on the market. The expectation of a robust crop has increased the perspective of higher corn cereal availability and contributed to the contractions seen in the international market. On Tuesday (2), StoneX released the update of its grain crop estimate, strengthening this perspective. Regarding the first 2022/23 corn crop, StoneX kept its production estimate unchanged at 28.6 million tonnes. The 2nd crop received a positive adjustment to 100.8 million. As a result, total production increased to 131.6 million tonnes, a record for the country. Click to read.
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