- Slow pace of US shipments and sales;
- Record of good rains in the Corn Belt in the first two weeks of August.
- Hot and dry weather forecast at the end of August;
- Worsening tensions between Russia and Ukraine;
- Concerns about the weather impacts on the Chinese corn crop.
Após três recuos semanais consecutivos, os futuros do milho finalizaram a última semana no campo positivo em Chicago. Entre os dias 24 de julho e 11 de agosto os futuros do cereal recuaram cerca de 15,1%. Com a forte queda nas cotações, muitos agentes aproveitaram o momento para comprar contratos do cereal acreditando em alguma correção técnica. Além disso, questões climáticas nos EUA e o conflito russo-ucraniano seguiram movimentando o mercado do grão. O Setembro/23 encerrou o período com uma valorização de 1,1%, cotado a 479,5 cents/bu.
Weather in the US is still being closely monitored. As much as the North American corn crop is already at an advanced stage of development, weather conditions continue to be closely monitored. Due to the good rainfall volume observed in the first half of August, the USDA raised by two percentage points the crops classified in good/excellent condition to 59%, exceeding market expectations (58%) and surpassing for the first time this year that recorded in the same week last year (57%). Weather models point to dry and hot weather in major US growing areas over the next ten days. With pollination completed and development in its final stages, crops are past the point of greatest concern. Still, officials will remain vigilant about the climate and possible impacts on US yields.
Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to raise doubts about grain supply. In recent weeks, new events have fueled tension in the Black Sea. On August 13, Russia fired warning shots at a cargo ship approaching Ukrainian waters, raising risks that civilian ships carrying grain through the Black Sea could face even greater risks in the future. Last week, Russian drones bombed the Ukrainian port of Reni, located on the Danube River. Ukraine has also carried out drone strikes on Russia. With both sides promoting attacks, the risk that the grain flow out of the region will be impacted continues to increase.
Weekly export sales - US (TMT)
Ethanol production and stocks drop in the US. According to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US ethanol production increased by 46 thousand barrels per day (tbpd) in the weekly comparison, standing at 1.069 tbpd between July 5 and August 11. Stocks also advanced, from 22,88 million barrels to 23.44 million, an increase of 555 thousand.
Export inspections continue to show a weak pace. According to the Export Inspection Report, the US shipped 398,300 tonnes of corn in the week ended August 10, up from 388,000 tonnes the week before and 539,300 tonnes a year earlier. With this, exports accumulated in the 2022/23 North American crop reached 35,6 million tonnes, against 53.1 million in the same period of 2021/22, a difference of 17.5 million tonnes.
US net sales advance closer to USDA estimate In its export sales report, the USDA reported that North American net sales totaled 233.5 thousand tonnes in the week ended August 10, 83 thousand tonnes more than a week earlier and 134.2 thousand tonnes higher than recorded in the same period of 2022. With this, accumulated sales advanced to 40.5 million tonnes, a deficit compared to last season's 20.4 million tonnes and 800 thousand below the Department's estimate of shipments for the 2022/23 crop.
Corn harvest reaches 90.2% in Argentina. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 90.2% of corn crops were harvested by August 16. As a result, 30.8 million tonnes of corn have already been harvested. In the same period last year, 97.9% of the crop had already been harvested, while the 5-year average for the same period is 97.5%.
