Corn retreats on the CBOT in a corrective move; Brazil exports 6.85 million tonnes of the grain in August
- Bullish
- Heated consumption globally;
- USDA estimates lower stocks for the 2025/26 crop at the global level;
- Strengthened exports in the United States.
- Bearish
- Completion of the winter crop corn harvest in Brazil;
- Potentially record crop in the United States;
- Tariff uncertainty.
Weekly summary | Last week, corn futures corrected the gains of previous weeks, with December/25 closing on Friday traded at US¢418.00/bu (-0.5%). The market operated with few headlines of interest. The robust supply in the northern hemisphere has been offset by strong demand as well, partially compensating for the more comfortable stock levels. It is agreed that the American crop should be the largest in history, but agents are already speculating about the effects that more adverse weather – beyond diseases in some cornfields in the country – could have on productivity estimates.
Intraday (15 min) Dec/25 contract - CBOT
Source: CBOT. Design: StoneX.
Crop Estimate – USA | Last week, StoneX published its estimate for the corn crop in the United States. The surveys indicated an average yield of 11.73 t/ha, below both last month's estimate (11.81 t/ha) and the most recent USDA figure (11.85 t/ha). Even so, the yields indicated are excellent, and should result in a record crop of 421.07 million tonnes, according to the estimate.
Demand | The North American export sector is greatly strengthened. Export sales for the new crop in the latest USDA release amounted to 20.9 million tonnes sold for the 2025/26 crop as of August 28. This is the largest volume in recent years for export sales before the start of the crop year. The data reveals the high dynamism of the United States exports program recently, given the strong competitiveness of the American grain from the standpoint of price.
On the other hand, the American market has been observing the performance of the ethanol sector in the country. Ethanol production in 2024/25 accumulated an increase of 3.1% versus the previous crop year. The export market is the one that has delivered the greatest dynamism to the fuel market, with ethanol shipments having hit a record in July (the most recent data available). Thus, trade policy and the opening of new markets can be a preponderant factor to ensure the continuity of the expansion of this sector, which would mean a greater demand for corn.
Intraday (15 min) Sep/25 contract - B3
Source: B3. Design: StoneX.
Brazil | The futures on B3 for November/25 retreated 2.1% last week, traded at R$68.08/bu. Brazilian prices are beginning to decline, and it is important to observe the consistency of this movement. The continuation of this bearish pressure would be justified by the ample supply harvested by Brazil this year.
The Brazilian market is beginning to ramp up its exports. The month of August saw 6.85 million tonnes exported, a very robust volume and above last year’s figures.
The focus now will be on continuing to strengthen the competitiveness of Brazilian corn, which may ensure the fulfillment of the estimate of 42 million tonnes exported this year.
Futures contracts traded on the CBOT (US¢/bu)
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
Futures contracts traded on B3 (BRL/bag)
Source: B3. Design: StoneX.
Spot prices in Brazil (USD/60kg bag)
Source: StoneX.
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