Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now.  Download your report  →

StoneX logo
Contact us

Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Add us as preferred source on Google

Banner Currencies

Corn continues to trade within narrow margins on CBOT; dollar volatility impacts prices in Brazil

  • Bullish
  • Strong global consumption;
  • USDA estimates lower global stocks for the 2025/26 crop;
  • Exports remain strong in the United States;
  • Expectations of reduced planted area in the U.S. for 2026;
  • Bearish
  • Expansion of planted area for the 2025/26 crop in Brazil;
  • Higher ending stocks in the U.S.

Note: Over the next two weeks, the Corn Weekly Report will not be published due to year-end holidays.

CBOT

Despite starting the week on a bearish note, corn futures on CBOT posted weekly gains, with March/26 contracts trading at US¢443.75/bu (+0.7%).

Intraday (15 min) March/26 contract - CBOT

image 124328

Source: CBOT. Design: StoneX.

The development of South American crops has posed some resistance to the market. In Argentina, where planting reached 70% of the area last week, 88% of the crops are in good/excellent condition. As such, the market is monitoring the possibility of substantial production in the country. Meanwhile, in Brazil, the summer crop is progressing well, although it accounts for a smaller share of the country's total supply compared to the second crop.

This favorable development in South American summer crops, combined with a sharp depreciation in wheat prices last week, resulted in significant pressure on the grain complex.

Even so, as the week went by, the market was once again confronted with positive signals in the export sector, with reported sales of 1.8 million tonnes for both weeks ending November 20 and 27 (this morning, the announcement of sales of 1.5 million tonnes in the week ending December 4 further supports this scenario of strong U.S. exports).

In addition to strong exports, the EIA released weekly ethanol production data, indicating the highest weekly corn usage in history. Consequently, corn demand continues to find solid support, boosting buying interest in the market.

It's also worth noting rumors on Friday that China allegedly bought volumes of corn from U.S. Northwest ports (PNW). In the November 3 Corn Weekly Report, we discussed the possibility of China returning to the international market due to excessive moisture during its corn harvest season. At the time, American products faced high tariffs, making the U.S. a less attractive origin, which could benefit Brazil. With tariff reductions in mid-November, the U.S. regained its appeal due to lower corn prices. Thus, today's reports of Chinese purchases of U.S. corn make sense. However, there are doubts about the sustainability of this trend, given that despite quality concerns, China still has ample domestic corn supplies.

Brazil

In Brazil, prices also rose last week, with March/26 closing at R$75.57/bag (+0.8%).

Intraday (15 min) March/26 contract - B3

image 124329

Source: B3. Design: StoneX.

Exchange rate dynamics have significantly influenced the direction of Brazilian corn prices. Even as the dollar weakens against other currencies, the Brazilian real has experienced poor performance, declining by 3.6% in December so far. Uncertainties surrounding next year's elections have weighed on the market, adding to the typical volatility of December.

The currency depreciation makes Brazilian commodities more expensive in reais, supporting corn price increases. Still, this does not necessarily translate into greater international competitiveness for Brazil, as U.S. corn remains very attractive. This means domestic balances are unlikely to experience significant shifts due to currency movements.

Inpasa announced the construction of a new corn ethanol plant in Rondonópolis, MT, and the expansion of its facility in Nova Mutum, MT. This further demonstrates the sector's strong appeal. Even in a year marked by periods of higher domestic corn prices, production margins in Mato Grosso remained robust. Nonetheless, cereal consumption continues to grow, and production will need to keep pace. Monitoring the development of the second crop, set to begin planting in a few weeks, will be critical to assessing the domestic balance for next year.

Futures contracts traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)

image 124330

Source: CME. Design: StoneX.

Futures contracts traded on B3 (R$/bag)

image 124331image-20250902142429-4

Source: B3. Design: StoneX.

Spot prices in Brazil (USD/60 kg bag)

image 124332image-20250902142435-5

Source: StoneX.
  • Grains & Oilseeds

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt Zeller
Matt Zeller
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.