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After months of sideways trading and a steady downward bias since 2022, crude oil prices are once again testing major resistance levels. The rebound that followed the end of the U.S. government shutdown has revived optimism, but traders are focusing on whether this recovery can hold. The chart structure shows how overlapping short- and long-term channels define the boundaries of a market still seeking direction.
Razan Hilal, Market Analyst at FOREX.com, explores how technical levels between $55 and $70 shape the next move in crude oil. Her analysis highlights where momentum could accelerate or fade, and how these price zones align with broader sentiment shifts across commodities and equities.
Hilal notes that oil prices have been trending lower since 2022 within a clearly defined channel. On the weekly chart, “prices are hovering near both the mid zone of the three-year downtrend channel and the middle zone of a five-month channel”. A sustained move above $63 and $66.80 could mark a structural breakout, targeting the upper boundary near $70. This level, she adds, would confirm that the recovery extends beyond a short-term correction.
At the other end of the spectrum, Hilal identifies $55 as a crucial reversal area where the “golden 0.618 level aligns with the yearly low”. The convergence of Fibonacci retracement and long-term support underscores how chart-based analysis can anchor market expectations. Should prices fall below $55, the next support near $49 could form a potential long-term double bottom, offering another opportunity for buyers to re-engage. Her framework shows how technical discipline can map both risk and opportunity within an uncertain macro backdrop.
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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst
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Safe-haven Treasuries are drawing support from two directions, a tech selloff and a slide in oil prices. Lower oil eases inflation concerns, adding a second driver to the decline in U.S. Treasury yields.
November 6 – Volatility remains high on Wall Street this morning, as we add the monthly jobs report to the post-election market correction. The Nasdaq dropped sharply on Thursday amid a fear that the Democrats taking over Congress would create major challenges for tech companies – especially those involved with AI. It’s trying to bounce this morning, but the headlines over AI risks continue to flow. Today’s jobs report should help to redirect some of that focus momentarily, but the possibility of more volatility clearly remains with us. As such, the VIX – Wall Street’s “fear index” – is trading near 27 at this hour. My observation over the decades is that commodity assets struggle to sustain rallies when the VIX is above 30, unless that asset has a strong story of its own. The dollar index is trading near 102.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.86%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%. WTI crude oil is trading near $91, while Brent trades near $98 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector traded mixed overnight, with wheat posting double-digit losses, while corn and soybeans were either side of unchanged in early trade.
November 5 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open after yesterday’s surge higher, with the Dow Jones looking to add to yesterday’s 3% gain and potentially flirt with pushing to three-month highs, while the tech heavy Nasdaq is looking at a lower open as money rotates out of tech, and the S&P 500 is caught in the middle. The VIX remains notably lower than recent weeks, though up slightly from yesterday’s close, hanging near 16.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is rebounding from yesterday’s losses amid unexpectedly strong U.S. labor market data this morning, reinforcing hawkish Fed bets, as it trades near 101.65. Treasury yields are higher to start the day as well, with 2-year yields trading at 4.618%, 10-year yields at 4.909%, and 30-year yields at 5.288%. Crude oil is bouncing after incredibly sharp losses in recent days, with nearby WTI currently up 2% on the day to trade near $89.80 and nearby Brent up 2.6% to trade near $97.10. Meanwhile, the ags are higher at the break as they look to find a rebound of their own.
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