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Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
November 5 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open after yesterday’s surge higher, with the Dow Jones looking to add to yesterday’s 3% gain and potentially flirt with pushing to three-month highs, while the tech heavy Nasdaq is looking at a lower open as money rotates out of tech, and the S&P 500 is caught in the middle. The VIX remains notably lower than recent weeks, though up slightly from yesterday’s close, hanging near 16.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is rebounding from yesterday’s losses amid unexpectedly strong U.S. labor market data this morning, reinforcing hawkish Fed bets, as it trades near 101.65. Treasury yields are higher to start the day as well, with 2-year yields trading at 4.618%, 10-year yields at 4.909%, and 30-year yields at 5.288%. Crude oil is bouncing after incredibly sharp losses in recent days, with nearby WTI currently up 2% on the day to trade near $89.80 and nearby Brent up 2.6% to trade near $97.10. Meanwhile, the ags are higher at the break as they look to find a rebound of their own.
Ukraine struck Russia’s Ryazan refinery overnight, one of the country’s largest and most frequently targeted refineries, marking the sixth Russian refinery targeted in the last week as any hope of an energy ceasefire disappears, with Russia also carrying out widespread strikes on Ukrainian power plants and substations over the same span. Russian officials said more than 200 drones had targeted the Ryazan region overnight, acknowledging fires at the facility and temporary power outages, but not confirming the extent of the damage. While crude oil has come under extreme pressure this week as hopes for a quicker end to the conflict in the Middle East rise, the renewed disruptions to Russian refining capacity may continue to provide support to the refined product side. Given both sides’ acceleration of targeting each other’s energy sectors despite this being the primary focus in a potential first step towards peace, the continuation of these attacks could signal any meaningful end to the conflict being pushed back further, keeping disruption to commodity flow from the Black Sea in focus.
U.S. employers announced 43.99k job cuts in October per this morning’s Challenger Report, up slightly from the 43.28k in September but down 71.2% versus the same month last year and marking the lowest October job cuts since 2023. Food companies saw the most cuts at 9.68k, followed by the tech sector (5.58k), and services (5.46k). Cumulative job cuts in 2026 now stand at 617.19k, down a notable 43.9% versus the same span last year and marking the lowest level for January – October since 2022, yet another signal of a largely tighter-than-previously-expected U.S. labor market. The tech sector has seen the most cuts this year at 171.50k, up 21% year-over-year, though it’s worth noting that 22 of the 30 industries that Challenger tracks have seen fewer jobs cuts in 2026 than they did in 2025. It’s also worth noting that the primary reason for reported job cuts is now shifting from the advancement of technology to actual economic conditions, with market/economic conditions overtaking AI as being the top reported reason for cuts in October for the second consecutive month. The report noted: “AI dominated layoff announcements through the spring and summer, but this fall companies are pointing to demand and economic conditions. That is a more cautious signal, though the overall pace of cutting remains low.”
First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest in nearly four months at only 189k in the week ending October 31, sharply below the average analyst estimate of a modest rise to 196k. This pushed the four-week moving average for initial jobless claims down to 194.75k, their lowest level since September 1969. Continuing claims ticked up to 1.718M, however, above the average trade estimate of 1.710M. However, it’s worth noting that the week prior was revised down to 1.695M from the 1.701M initially reported, marking the lowest level of continuing claims seen since April 2023. Coupled with this morning’s job cuts data, the U.S. labor market continues to prove unexpectedly resilient, a good sign for the broader economy but another permission signal to the Fed to continue their path of hiking rates moving forward.
Sticking with the theme of more hawkish monetary policy, the Bank of England today raised rates for the first time since 2023 while signaling that more increases were likely moving forward. The 25-basis point hike saw an 8-1 vote, but it’s worth noting the lone dissenter was not arguing for a hold, but rather for a larger 50-basis point hike. Catherine Mann, the lone dissenter, had previously warned that the Bank of England has not done enough to reassure markets that it had a grip on inflation. While the sharp drop in crude oil this week does alleviate some concern moving forward, it’s important to keep in mind the huge build-up in inflationary pressures already in the pipeline, as well as the ongoing tightness in refined products, not crude, which ultimately have the bigger impact on the consumer. The ultimate question is how the U.S. Fed’s path forward will look amid these pressures, with CME’s FedWatch showing the odds of a 25-basis point hike at their December meeting now up to 83%. This conversation, and the broader path into 2027 and the years ahead, will surely remain in focus, with plenty of market-moving macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments currently standing between today and their next meeting.
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November 5 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open after yesterday’s surge higher, with the Dow Jones looking to add to yesterday’s 3% gain and potentially flirt with pushing to three-month highs, while the tech heavy Nasdaq is looking at a lower open as money rotates out of tech, and the S&P 500 is caught in the middle. The VIX remains notably lower than recent weeks, though up slightly from yesterday’s close, hanging near 16.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is rebounding from yesterday’s losses amid unexpectedly strong U.S. labor market data this morning, reinforcing hawkish Fed bets, as it trades near 101.65. Treasury yields are higher to start the day as well, with 2-year yields trading at 4.618%, 10-year yields at 4.909%, and 30-year yields at 5.288%. Crude oil is bouncing after incredibly sharp losses in recent days, with nearby WTI currently up 2% on the day to trade near $89.80 and nearby Brent up 2.6% to trade near $97.10. Meanwhile, the ags are higher at the break as they look to find a rebound of their own.
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