By: Razan Hilal, Market Analyst
Energy sector equities are pressing against a barrier that has capped them since 2008, and that single fact reframes everything the daily charts are saying. Crude oil timeframe analysis matters here because the multi-year map and the short-term map are answering different questions, the first about structural direction and the second about immediate momentum. WTI crude oil is holding above a declining resistance line that connected lower highs through the year and has since flipped into support, a short horizon signal that says nothing about whether the multi decade ceiling above energy equities gives way. Traders reading one without the other are working from half the picture.
Razan Hilal, CMT, is a StoneX Media Market Analyst covering global macro markets, with seven years analyzing foreign exchange, equities, commodities and equity indices, and a Chartered Market Technician designation behind her work in technical and intermarket analysis.
"WTI crude oil and the Energy Sector ETF continues to hold above multi-month and multi-year resistance levels, signaling continuous upside risks", Razan Hilal observes at the top of her analysis, and that framing sets the weight class of the signal. The Energy Select Sector ETF is attempting to confirm a breakout beyond an uptrend resistance line that has connected consecutive higher highs since 2008, a barrier measured in market cycles rather than sessions. Confirmation there would carry a different order of significance than any daily development, because "a further price action travels beyond the bounds of that multi-year resistance, we can be increasing bullish confidence for a bullish forecast across the energy market". Failure at that barrier is equally structural, opening a drawdown path back toward a historical confluence zone that traces to lows seen in the early 2020s and again to 2014. For anyone positioning in energy equities, this is the chart that determines whether the last several months represent a genuine regime change or a rally into an old ceiling.
The daily WTI crude oil picture is constructive in a way the multi-year chart cannot yet confirm, and that gap is the practical problem. Price action is "also holding above the bounds of the declining multi-month resistance connecting consecutive lower highs since March 2026", Hilal notes, a line that has since converted into support, with a Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the March highs to the July lows marking the ladder above it. Beneath that structure sits a sequence of medium term supports, and a sustained loss of them would redirect crude oil toward the lower boundary that has acted as the defining barrier for price action since 2019. What makes the divergence resolvable is not the chart but the geopolitics, because the bullish extension depends on "an extending escalation geopolitical narrative with further supply disruption risks on the horizon". According to Hilal, the mirror case is just as clean, a downside break "would likely be aligned with a firm and established resolution and narrative in the U.S. and Iran, possibly reinstating calmer supply flows back across the markets".
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst
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A conflict-driven bid in crude is no longer just an energy story, because a rising geopolitical risk premium travels straight into inflation expectations. Fiona Cincotta unpacks how that premium reaches bond yields, central bank policy and risk assets.
September 9 – Nearby Brent crude oil futures have broken above $100 for the first time in over six weeks amid fresh escalations targeting energy assets in both the Middle East and Black Sea. A tit-for-tat cycle of strikes on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz has persisted in recent days, with CENTCOM reporting U.S. strikes having destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers yesterday, then Iran escalating overnight, claiming attacks on two U.S. naval vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf, though that has not yet been verified by the U.S. What stood out to me regarding yesterday’s strikes was the targeting of an Iranian oil tanker near the anchorage area of Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub. The proximity of this strike to Kharg Island could be interpreted as a deliberate warning: Washington is demonstrating its ability to hit Iran’s oil-export system at the doorstep of the country’s principal crude terminal while, for now, stopping short of targeting the infrastructure itself. At the same time, Ukraine carried out heavy strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk, the country’s top Black Sea port for commodity shipment. While confirmed details are still sparse, the Russian naval base in the area appears to have been the top target, with energy terminals damaged as well, but no damage to grain infrastructure has been reported at this time. On the other side, Russia continued their campaign of heavy strikes across Ukraine, including an ongoing focus on Black Sea port cities, with Mykolaiv reportedly suffering notable damage. The other notable target was the border crossing from Ukraine into Moldova at Starokozache, highlighting Russia’s new campaign targeting alternate routes for Ukrainian grain shipments amid the effective closure of the Black Sea. Both wars are increasingly becoming wars against commodity logistics, keeping support under the broader complex as traders await what comes next.
September 8 – Geopolitical escalation remains in focus to start the short week, with stock futures pointing to a mixed open and WTI crude oil prices posting a fresh three-month high amid a ramp-up in fighting in both the Middle East and Black Sea. The VIX is up notably from its 2026 low posted on Friday but remains relatively muted as it trades above the 15.4 level. The dollar is quietly lower to start the day, hovering around 98.84 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are also quietly lower to start the day, with the sharpest declines seen at the long-end of the curve; 2-year yields are trading at 4.37%, 10-year yields at 4.77%, and 30-year yields at 5.225%. Nearby WTI pushed to its highest level in exactly three months earlier in the session but has since pulled back to trade near $92.90, up ~1.8% on the day, while nearby Brent pushed to its highest level since July 24th earlier in the session but has pulled back to trade near $97.50 at the time of writing, up only ~0.4%. The ags are widely mixed, with the biggest strength being seen in the wheat complex after weekend talks failed to produce any major results, which we’ll dive into in more depth below.
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