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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 9

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

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September 9 – Nearby Brent crude oil futures have broken above $100 for the first time in over six weeks amid fresh escalations targeting energy assets in both the Middle East and Black Sea. A tit-for-tat cycle of strikes on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz has persisted in recent days, with CENTCOM reporting U.S. strikes having destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers yesterday, then Iran escalating overnight, claiming attacks on two U.S. naval vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf, though that has not yet been verified by the U.S. What stood out to me regarding yesterday’s strikes was the targeting of an Iranian oil tanker near the anchorage area of Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub. The proximity of this strike to Kharg Island could be interpreted as a deliberate warning: Washington is demonstrating its ability to hit Iran’s oil-export system at the doorstep of the country’s principal crude terminal while, for now, stopping short of targeting the infrastructure itself. At the same time, Ukraine carried out heavy strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk, the country’s top Black Sea port for commodity shipment. While confirmed details are still sparse, the Russian naval base in the area appears to have been the top target, with energy terminals damaged as well, but no damage to grain infrastructure has been reported at this time. On the other side, Russia continued their campaign of heavy strikes across Ukraine, including an ongoing focus on Black Sea port cities, with Mykolaiv reportedly suffering notable damage. The other notable target was the border crossing from Ukraine into Moldova at Starokozache, highlighting Russia’s new campaign targeting alternate routes for Ukrainian grain shipments amid the effective closure of the Black Sea. Both wars are increasingly becoming wars against commodity logistics, keeping support under the broader complex as traders await what comes next.

Stock futures are pointing to a lower open amid the ongoing escalations and subsequent rise in energy prices, with the major indexes all looking to add to yesterday’s losses. The VIX has firmed to a one-week high at 16.5 at the time of writing, though it’s worth noting this remains on the low side of 2026’s range. The dollar is modestly weaker again this morning, falling to its lowest level in nearly three weeks at 98.65 at the time of writing. Treasuries are mixed to start the day, with the front-end of the curve seeing the sharpest rises as increasing energy prices move near-term rate expectations higher on fears of accelerating inflation. 2-year yields are trading near a two-year high around 4.42% and 10-year yields are near a three-year high above 4.81%, but 30-year yields are off slightly to trade just above 5.25%. Nearby WTI crude oil is trading at a three-month high near $95.80 at the time of writing, while nearby Brent is up nearly 3% on the day to trade at $100.80. The ags are quietly mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex showing some strength in the overnights following the escalations in the Black Sea but losing steam into the break to hang closer to unchanged.

USDA published their first U.S. winter wheat planting progress of the year on yesterday afternoon’s weekly Crop Progress report, pegging the crop at 2% planted nationally, trailing last year’s 4% and the previous five-year average for the week of 5%. Given the recent heatwave and lack of soil moisture currently seen across much of the Southern Plains, it’s not a huge shock to see us off to a slow start. What will be interesting to keep an eye on in the year ahead, however, is how many more winter wheat acres the market is able to buy with this rally. The fall crop insurance price discovery period continues on through next Monday (9/14), and current averages for both KC and Chicago wheat futures are looking very lofty relative to recent years. U.S. spring wheat harvest advanced another 9% week-on-week to reach 86% complete, just a tick behind expectations. The only real delays are being seen in Montana amid recent wet weather causing delays, much like the situation on the northern side of the border, but all other states remain comfortably ahead of their average paces.

U.S. corn ratings fell 1% week-on-week to 56% good/excellent on yesterday’s weekly report, matching analyst estimates. This remains 12% below last year at this time and 3% below the previous five-year average for the comparable week. Harvest is officially underway in southern growing areas, with USDA pegging national corn harvest at 5% complete, ahead of last year’s 4% and the previous five-year average of 3%. The recent heatwave seen across the Midwest has sped maturity along notably, which should translate to rapid harvest progress barring the expected scattered rain delays. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean ratings held steady at 58% good/excellent, beating analyst estimates of a 1% weekly decline. This trails last year by 6% but is only 1% behind the previous five-year average at this time. USDA did not publish any soybean harvest progress this week, but I would expect to see it begin next week amid the aforementioned speeding up of maturity. To that point, all soybean maturity metrics remain ahead of schedule, with 26% of the nation’s soybean crop already dropping leaves, 6% ahead of both last year and the five-year average pace.

The StoneX September customer yield survey was released yesterday afternoon, pegging U.S. corn yield at 182.9 bushels per acre, down from the 184.8 seen in August, and soybean yield at 53.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from August. With the increased acres from the August WASDE, these yields would imply U.S. corn production at 16.207 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.547 billion bushels, the latter of which would be an all-time high if realized. Below is a look at how this estimate compares to USDA’s September estimates over the last 15 years. As can be seen, the split between above and below USDA is fairly even for both corn and soybeans, with recent years showing especially impressive performance. As a reminder, USDA is currently at 180.7 bushels per acre on corn and 52.7 bushels per acre on soybeans. We’ve seen a lot of notable weather events since the August WASDE, with extreme wetness seen across much of the Eastern Corn Belt through the last half of August and a major heatwave pushing across much of the Midwest to start September. It will be very interesting to see what USDA has in store on Friday’s September WASDE—the primary headline focus will obviously be on yield, but don’t lose sight of the potential for unexpected acreage changes either.  

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 9

September 9 – Nearby Brent crude oil futures have broken above $100 for the first time in over six weeks amid fresh escalations targeting energy assets in both the Middle East and Black Sea. A tit-for-tat cycle of strikes on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz has persisted in recent days, with CENTCOM reporting U.S. strikes having destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers yesterday, then Iran escalating overnight, claiming attacks on two U.S. naval vessels and eight oil tankers in the Gulf, though that has not yet been verified by the U.S. What stood out to me regarding yesterday’s strikes was the targeting of an Iranian oil tanker near the anchorage area of Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub. The proximity of this strike to Kharg Island could be interpreted as a deliberate warning: Washington is demonstrating its ability to hit Iran’s oil-export system at the doorstep of the country’s principal crude terminal while, for now, stopping short of targeting the infrastructure itself. At the same time, Ukraine carried out heavy strikes on Russia’s Novorossiysk, the country’s top Black Sea port for commodity shipment. While confirmed details are still sparse, the Russian naval base in the area appears to have been the top target, with energy terminals damaged as well, but no damage to grain infrastructure has been reported at this time. On the other side, Russia continued their campaign of heavy strikes across Ukraine, including an ongoing focus on Black Sea port cities, with Mykolaiv reportedly suffering notable damage. The other notable target was the border crossing from Ukraine into Moldova at Starokozache, highlighting Russia’s new campaign targeting alternate routes for Ukrainian grain shipments amid the effective closure of the Black Sea. Both wars are increasingly becoming wars against commodity logistics, keeping support under the broader complex as traders await what comes next.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 8

September 8 – Geopolitical escalation remains in focus to start the short week, with stock futures pointing to a mixed open and WTI crude oil prices posting a fresh three-month high amid a ramp-up in fighting in both the Middle East and Black Sea. The VIX is up notably from its 2026 low posted on Friday but remains relatively muted as it trades above the 15.4 level. The dollar is quietly lower to start the day, hovering around 98.84 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are also quietly lower to start the day, with the sharpest declines seen at the long-end of the curve; 2-year yields are trading at 4.37%, 10-year yields at 4.77%, and 30-year yields at 5.225%. Nearby WTI pushed to its highest level in exactly three months earlier in the session but has since pulled back to trade near $92.90, up ~1.8% on the day, while nearby Brent pushed to its highest level since July 24th earlier in the session but has pulled back to trade near $97.50 at the time of writing, up only ~0.4%. The ags are widely mixed, with the biggest strength being seen in the wheat complex after weekend talks failed to produce any major results, which we’ll dive into in more depth below.

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