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Daily Coffee Report - 05/12/25

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee Futures Closed Lower

 
  • StoneX Coffee Team
  • Market Intelligence

Following what was likely the slowest week of the year ahead of Friday’s June options expiration, coffee prices opened the week sharply lower in both terminals on strong volume. Arabica futures settled 14.80 cents lower today, with 37,870 lots traded, after moving within a 14.45-cent range over the past week on total volume of 103,019 lots. The robusta market mirrored this weakness, closing $174 lower on 14,195 lots today, following a $171 range over the past week on 36,137 lots of total volume. While today’s sharp move was triggered by the expiration of June arabica options, the underlying pressure has been building for weeks amid slowing spot demand, as evidenced by the steady increase in certified arabica stocks and new gradings. Since March 31st, certified stocks have risen by 73,427 bags to reach 843,903 bags, with an additional 143,397 bags pending grading as of today’s close. Although there is still ample time before the July 2025 delivery period begins on June 20th, it has become increasingly clear that the highs posted on April 29th—418.90 cents flat price and 8.80 cents for the July/September spread—were unsustainable for the time being. In the ongoing May 2025 delivery period, 306 lots have been issued to date, with origin breakdown as follows: 181 lots from Brazil, 60 from Tanzania, 44 from Mexico, 16 from Uganda, 4 from India, and 1 from Venezuela. Of these, 305 lots were issued in Antwerp and 1 lot in Miami.

After the market closed, CECAFE reported Brazil’s green coffee exports for April 2025 at 2.78 million bags, including 2.68 million bags of arabica—down 3.25% month-over-month and 17.4% year-over-year—and 103,500 bags of robusta—down 54.2% month-over-month and 84.9% year-over-year.

On the macro front, the most significant development over the weekend came out of Geneva, where following two days of negotiations, the United States and China announced a trade truce this morning. The agreement includes a temporary 90-day reduction in tariffs as both nations seek to reset relations and work toward a broader trade agreement.

 

Coffeeorderdesk@stonex.com    

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-11-3509-5426     

ICE Arabica

Volume:

37,870

ICE Robusta

Volume:

14,195

 

Brazil Arabica

Volume:

376

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

  • Coffee

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