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Daily Coffee Report 7/10/26

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee futures closed out a historic week of unprecedented volatility, giving traders a much-needed breather before markets reopen Monday morning. Arabica futures finished the week 35.60 cents higher, while Robusta closed $136 higher. The action kicked off Monday with a 45.15-cent move on an almost 57-cent range, followed by two down days to a low of 307.30, a 27.85-cent rally yesterday, and an early long liquidation this morning that was bought back, leaving prices to close 19.15 cents above the session low. Three-month implied vol jumped from 39% to 51%. EFP/EFS volume was minimal in both terminal markets relative to the size of the move and traded volumes. ICE raised the initial margin rate for the September futures contract from $7,865.19 to $21,116.25 — a 168% increase — during the week. August Arabica options expired today.

Despite all this, total Arabica futures open interest fell by only 7,017 contracts, while the most active September contract still held 75,946 lots of open interest as of yesterday's close. The Sep/Dec spread did not track the flat-price rally until yesterday, when it closed 660 points higher versus Thursday's close at 20 premium, ending the week just below today's 20.50 high print, at 19.25 premium. This move in the spread signals that some commercial shorts threw in the towel in the latter half of the week; heavy origin selling was noted on Monday's rally but was absent for the remainder of the week. The market will be looking to today's COT report for the latest read on commercial and non-commercial positioning.

Robusta was largely a follower this week, trading between 3709 and 4121 before closing at 3852. Flat price moved higher, but spreads traded very differently than in the NY terminal — the UX spread ended the week 4 points lower, at 34 premium. Indonesian coffee was presented to the board this week, in addition to the steady wave of Brazilian conilon. The Sep/Sep arb closed the week at 159 cents.

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-34-3199-1550     

ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

65,093

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

22,400

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

828

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
  • Coffee

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July 9 – Stock futures were mixed overnight, following a volatile day on Wednesday as fighting intensifies again in the Middle East. Yet, the VIX is trading back below 17 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 101.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.56%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, after spiking to fresh 16-month highs on Wednesday. WTI crude oil is trading near $73 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $78 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex was mostly weaker as Midwest weather forecasts again shift milder and wetter for the key corn pollination period later this month.

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