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Daily Coffee Report 7/29/26

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Coffee futures closed lower today, breaking a three-session streak of consecutive positive closes, as liquidation hit both Arabica flat price and the spot UZ spread. The UZ fell more than 500 points intraday, touching a low of 16.40 premium before settling the day at 17.30. Volume in New York eased on the session, trading just under 42k lots, with no material change in spot September open interest. The volatility we're seeing reinforces the fragile footing this market is on heading into the upcoming index fund roll and September options expiry.

The Sep/Dec spread has traded a 12.05-cent range from last Monday through today, for a net change of just 0.80 cents over that period. CSO open interest in the UZ suggests a pin somewhere between the 10 and 15 strikes, so watch for price action to gravitate toward that range heading into next week.

Robusta flat price and spreads continue to trade choppy, tracking NY for direction. The Sep/Sep arb fell back below 160 today, going out around 155.

Most external markets were consumed overnight by the restart of Middle East conflict, with Iranian attacks on a US air base met by a swift US-Saudi coordinated response, and renewed threats of escalation from President Trump. Financial markets have seen risk-off trade over the past week that could spill into commodities if the situation continues to escalate.

Miami                                                London                                Brazil                           

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-34-3199-1550     

ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

41,876

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

27,138

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

1,279

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
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