
Daily Natural Gas Market Update 10-7-2026
Daily Natural Gas Comments

- Energy
By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

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Despite unsupportive weather forecasts for much of October, nat gas ended higher Tuesday for a 3rd straight session. The Nov contract settled 2.6 cents higher at $3.301.
Prices are trading about 9 cents higher this morning, supported by concerns that a potential hurricane this week could further curb supply.
Weather forecasts remain largely neutral for the coming weeks, limiting both heating and cooling demand. Much above normal readings will span much of the US this week. The 6-10 day outlook has turned cooler this morning across New England, the Northern Plains and the West Coast while above normal readings continues in the South Central and SE.
Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the Gulf and is expected to strengthen this week into the first hurricane of the season. Isaias is expected to reach hurricane status this weekend and is forecast to impact the Gulf Coast on Saturday.
Source: NOAAMild shoulder season weather should support healthy storage injections in the coming weeks. The EIA projects inventories will increase by a total of 328 BCF this month, reaching 3.85 TCF by Oct. 31. With weather outlooks showing limited heating demand, injections could extend into mid-November. Estimates for the week ended Oct. 2 call for a 79 BCF build, roughly in line with last year’s 77 BCF injection but below the 5 yr av build of 96 BCF.
Production is holding in the 108 BCF/d range as producers continue to scale back amid easing weather demand. Potential hurricane related disruptions in the Gulf this week could lead to an even more notable decline. The EIA increased its production outlook slightly for 2026 to 112.2 BCF while their 2027 forecast was unchanged at 116.1 BCF/d.

Freeport LNG is still working towards a full recovery following last weekend’s outage that took Train 2 offline for maintenance. Flows yesterday were estimated at 2.1 BCF/d, about 0.3 BCF/d lower than levels prior to the outage. Seasonal maintenance is also weighing on feedgas demand with Cove Point still offline while flows at Golden Pass are running about 50% lower than recent highs. Feedgas demand is estimated this morning at 18.9 BCF/d, up 0.6 BCF/d. The EIA projects LNG exports will average 17.6 BCF/d this year, rising to an average of 18.6 BCF/d in 2027.


The November 26 natural gas contract has been moving steadily higher over the past three sessions after bottoming on 40-day moving average support last Friday.
From Friday’s 2.912 low, the November contract has gained .202 (6.9%) closing Tuesday at 3.114.
Early buying today has rallied the November contract above daily continuation chart 200-day moving average resistance at 3.135.
The 200-day moving average was broken as resistance two weeks ago, but the rally failed to hold.
A close above 3.135 today will turn the 3.317 September high into the next upside resistance.
200-day moving average resistance broken early today is now support at 3.135 followed by the 10-day moving average at 3.060.
Trend following indicators remain bullish suggesting higher prices ahead.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 61.07






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Daily Natural Gas Comments


October 7 – Stock futures are pointing to a lower open after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs, taking a bit of a breather following major strength to start the week. The VIX is up 5% on the day but remains effectively dead center of its recent range as it trades near the 15.75 level. The dollar is resuming its march higher after taking a step back yesterday, pushing near its 18-month high around 102.5 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are starting the day with a notable push higher, particularly at the long-end of the curve, with 2-year yields trading at 4.816%, 10-year yields at 5.337%, and 30-year yields at 5.715%. Crude oil prices are off to a quiet start, with nearby WTI up 0.3% on the day to trade near $90.20 and nearby Brent up 0.9% on the day to trade near $101.50. The ags are quietly lower to start the day, taking back some of yesterday's sharp gains.


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