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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-8-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251208071737-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Natural gas extended its upward momentum Friday, fueled by a sharp increase in heating demand amid severe cold while LNG feedgas demand recovered.  Market expectations point to a rapid drawdown in inventories, likely erasing the five-year average surplus in the coming weeks. Short covering ahead of the weekend provided further strength. The Jan contract settled 22.6 cents higher at $5.289.  For the week, the contract gained 43.9 cents.  

image 123637

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Production maintained levels above 107 BCF/day throughout last week. Output is coming in sharply lower this morning, down 2.8 BCF/day at 105.1 BCF/day due to cold weather in the NE.  Production is still running 4 BCF/day higher than last year with the month to date average at 108.1 BCF/day.  

The nat gas rig count fell by 1 last week to 129 rigs. 

Storage levels are projected to fall sharply in the next 2 reports.  Platts estimates withdrawals could total roughly 370 BCF, surpassing the 5 yr avg pulls by about 185 BCF.  

image 123638

Source: StoneX

After dipping towards 18 BCF/day earlier in the week, LNG feedgas demand bounced back Friday as Corpus Christi resumed operations following an outage.  Flows ended the week above 19 BCF/day and are pegged at 19.2 BCF/day this morning. Further gains are anticipated as new liquefaction capacity comes online.

image 123639Source: NOAA

Nat gas prices are giving back a chunk of last week’s gains this morning on profit taking as weather outlooks show less cold than previously expected.  Warmer revisions have been made to the 8-14 day outlook with the coldest conditions limited to the NE.  

The spot month is currently trading 32 cents lower.

image-20251208071819-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The January 26 natural gas contract was heavily bid in last week’s trade, closing up 4 out of the 5 trading days while topping out at a new 3+year spot high on Friday.

The January contract rallied up to a 5.496 high on Friday, closing the day at 5.289.  For the week, the contract was up .439 (9%), a 7th consecutive higher weekly close for the spot contract.

The January contract has gapped lower to begin the new week of trade but at a current price of 5.040 remains well above 10 day moving average support at 4.850 today.

A close under 4.850 is needed to turn the near-term trend back down.
 

The top of the overnight gap between 5.205-5.310 is near term resistance followed by last week’s 5.492 high.

Trend following indicators remain bullish, but a bearish divergence (new price high, lower index) high has formed on the daily RSI and also appears to be forming on the short-term index.  This could indicate a near term top is forming.

Moving Average Alignment - Bullish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 65.32

image 123645

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123647

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123646

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123292

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 121478

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 123644

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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