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By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
Nat gas prices advanced Friday on expiration related position squaring and geopolitical risk. Forecasts also shifted cooler on Friday for the eastern US, offering further support. April futures went off the board at $3.095, up 9.6 cents while the new spot month May contract rose 9.7 cents to settle at $3.025.
Today’s outlook for the next 5 days features warm risks from the lower Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic while temps in the North Central US will be on the cooler side. Above normal temps are projected for both coasts during the 6-10 day period with the mid-section of the US averaging normal to below normal. The 15 day forecast shows a total of 142.7 HDDs which would be the warmest on record since 1950.
Natural gas prices have turned lower this morning as current mild weather cuts into demand.
Demand is down 8.1 BCF/d this morning at 100.4 BCF/d due to an 8 BCF/d decline in heating demand to 18.1 BCF/d. Heating needs will be limited over the next few days but should tick higher later this week. Res/comm usage is projected to average 22.9 BCF/d during the 8-14 day period.
Source: StoneXHelping insulate the US gas market from disruptions tied to the ongoing conflict with Iran, domestic LNG facilities continue to operate near full capacity.
Feedgas demand is estimated at 19.4 BCF/d this morning, with Platts projecting flows to hold near this level over the next 2 weeks.
Export capacity continues to grow with Corpus Christi’s Stage 3 Train 5 now online and Golden Pass expected to begin exports later this year.
The new front month May 26 natural gas contract is down just over .100 in today’s early trade following a failed rally attempt late last week by the expired April 26 contract.
The April contract rallied up to a 3.124 high on Friday but could not breakout above 40-day moving average resistance at the same level.
With 40-day moving average resistance holding on Friday, the primary trend remains sideways to down as the market carves out a post-winter seasonal low.
Last week’s 2.864 low on the daily continuation chart has been broken in today’s early trade turning the late-February and current 2026 spot contract low at 2.775 into the next area of support.
If 2.775 support is broken, the 2025 spot contract low at 2.622 will become the next area of support followed by 2.500.
10-day moving average resistance is at 3.010 today followed by the 40-day average at 3.085.
Moving Average Alignment - Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 42.76
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