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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 9

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

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November 9 – Stock futures built on Friday’s consolidation, as value buyers slowly re-entered the market overnight. We’ll get key inflation data this week, with the consumer price index for October scheduled for release tomorrow, followed by the producer price index on Friday. Scheduled negotiations regarding both major wars on commodity logistics will also take place over the next few days. The VIX slid lower to trade near 23, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.83% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.52%. WTI crude oil prices are near $87, while Brent trades near $94 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex traded mixed to weaker overnight, with traders now focused on tomorrow’s big USDA WASDE crop report.

The United States is expected to host trilateral peace talks with Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. It’s not the first time that these talks have been held, but it’s the first time since early this year, and it raises a glimmer of hope that perhaps some agreement might be reached that might at least allow commodity trade to flow through the Black Sea again. Even so, those chances still appear slim. We’ve heard comments of optimism from each of the parties involved, but we’ve also seen little to indicate that they’re willing to give from their previous positions that were previously considered unacceptable by the other side. Even so, talking is better than not talking, so commodity traders are holding on to some optimism to start the week. The talks are taking place under a backdrop of both sides hitting each other hard in recent days, with Ukraine striking Russian energy refinery infrastructure deep within the country, while Russia hits Ukraine energy infrastructure as well, along with cargo ships tied to Ukraine in various ways.  

President Trump is scheduled to meet with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani at the White House today to discuss the possibility of renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran, as well as a possible ceasefire. Qatar has served as a mediator in efforts to bring the two sides together. This too raises hopes in the energy markets that we could see an agreement that allows energy commodities to flow freely through the Strait of Hormuz once again, although here again, both sides appear to still be hunkered down behind redlines of non-negotiables that are unacceptable to the other side. Even so, energy traders and Iranian negotiators are hopeful that the midterm election results have President Trump more willing to give on his side of the negotiations. The above two sets of talks, combined with tomorrow’s big USDA WASDE crop report, make this a pivotal week for Ag & Energy commodity price action.

Last week’s election results certainly reshuffled the deck in Washington politics. The blue wave that swept across the nation was so significant that red state Kansas elected a democratic senator for the first time since the 1930s. Several seats in Congress remain undeclared yet at this point, but it is clear that the Democrats will have a majority in both the House of Representatives and in the Senate. President Trump was quick to point the blame at various factors that led to the blue wave, but the bottom line is that he failed to connect with the American voter beyond his Republican base. Yes, he had a 99% support level from his party, but neither party can win an election with merely the support of their party base. One has to garner the support of the independent voter to do that, and President Trump failed to achieve that objective. The independent voter was frustrated with high energy prices. President Trump acknowledged that high energy prices were a product of the Iran war. He assumed that the independent voter would “trust” his reasons for the war to rid Iran of its nuclear capability, so he never made the case to the American public for why it was important for them to sacrifice. Throughout America’s history, U.S. citizens have risen to the occasion to sacrifice for a cause, but President Trump never made that case to the independent voter.

USDA is scheduled to release its November WASDE crop report at Noon Eastern Time tomorrow. This report often proves pivotal to the markets, as it tends to provide a comfort level in the marketplace with the size of the year’s crops. As such, the focus tends to pivot to the demand side of the balance sheet, as impacted by growing conditions in South America for its corn and soybean crops. Growing conditions are currently good for Argentina’s corn and soybean crops, although it is still early. We’re entering into the heart of Brazil’s soybean growing season, and again conditions there are good. That could still change as we move into December when pod fill begins in earnest, but for now it is good. The winter (safrinha) corn crop won’t be planted until February, so we’ll need to monitor whether things change before then. An increase in USDA’s corn and/or soybean yields tomorrow could leave things comfortable for the current year balance sheet but still leave things tight for the 2027-28 marketing year without an increase in acreage for both. A decrease in yields could still tighten things up for the current year.   

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 9

November 9 – Stock futures built on Friday’s consolidation, as value buyers slowly re-entered the market overnight. We’ll get key inflation data this week, with the consumer price index for October scheduled for release tomorrow, followed by the producer price index on Friday. Scheduled negotiations regarding both major wars on commodity logistics will also take place over the next few days. The VIX slid lower to trade near 23, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.83% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.52%. WTI crude oil prices are near $87, while Brent trades near $94 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex traded mixed to weaker overnight, with traders now focused on tomorrow’s big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 6

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