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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-14-26

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260414071942-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices opened firmer Monday with support stemming from a rebound across the energy complex as geopolitical concerns escalated. Early strength was also supported by a cooler shift in forecasts.  Upward momentum faded mid morning given strong production and shoulder season demand weakness.  May NG settled 2.1 cents lower at $2.627.

Prices are trading mixed this morning with the spot month down about 2 cents. 

Summerlike temps will dominate the eastern US this week with daily highs approaching or potentially setting new records.  Both the 6 -10 and 8-14 day periods are forecast to average closer to normal, with increased temperature variability.  The next 15 days will yield 111 HDDs, which is up from Friday’s forecast but still ranking as 4th warmest since 1950.

Source: NOAA

Total demand has remained subdued, holding below 100 BCF/d for a 4th straight day at 97.9 BCF/d this morning.  While LNG feedgas flows remain supportive at 18.7 BCF/d, though res/comm usage has declined steadily over the past week, projected this morning at 12.7 BCF/d.  

Total demand is projected rise slightly above 100 BCF/d over the next week, supported by a modest uptick in heating needs.

image 129814Source: StoneX

Production saw a sharp pullback overnight, falling 2 BCF/d to 105.8 BCF/day. The decline is being attributed to one day of pipeline maintenance on Columbia Gas Transmission and a 2 day inspection on El Paso Natural gas pipeline. The decline should be temporary, with output projected to average 107.2 BCF/day over the next week. 

image 129813
Source: StoneX

image-20260414072001-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The May 26 natural gas contract remains in a very bearish downtrend as it continues to set new 2026 spot contract lows on a nearly daily basis.

In Monday’s trade, the May contract fell to a new 2026 spot low at 2.615 before closing the day at 2.627, down .021.

The 2025 spot contract low at 2.622 was broken as support on Monday turning 2.500 into the next support followed by 2.400-2.410.

2.400-2.410 is a 2-year trend line that marked the 2025 post-winter low at 2.858.  This same trend line held again at the 2025 spot low of 2.622 set in August.

If 2.400-2.410 support is reached again, it could mark the final post-winter low for 2026.

The 10-day moving average which has been primary resistance over the past two weeks is at 2.755 today.

Moving Average Alignment - Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish 

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 34.65

image 129800

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129799

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129798

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129059

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 129058

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 129797

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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