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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 6-2-2026

Heather Wine
Heather Wine

Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260602082007-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices pulled back Monday following last week’s rally, with the July contract settling at $3.179, down 11.1 cents. The move suggested profit-taking following last week’s trade higher in conjunction with increased output and softer feedgas flows. The market lost ground despite rising crude oil and EU gas prices, which rallied after Iran halted negotiations with the US and vowed to completely block the Strait of Hormuz. Trade remains down this morning with the spot month trading about 5 cents lower. 

Weather remains supportive overall, with forecasts continuing to point to mostly above-normal temperatures through mid June, a pattern that should keep cooling demand elevated. The near term pattern shows some variation with heat building in the Northern US while cooler conditions dominate the South Central and SE. 

Source: NOAA

EU prices rebounded Monday, reversing Friday’s losses as hopes for a near-term Iran resolution faded.  EU contracts are trading softer this morning with strong wind output weighing on gas demand. Price action is expected to remain very headline driven.

LNG feedgas demand has fallen roughly 1 BCF/d from last week’s average of 17.3 BCF/day.  Flows are still strong, averaging 2.4 BCF/d higher than a year ago. 

Strong global demand could send US LNG volumes north of 20 BCF/d as export facilities conclude seasonal repairs.

image 132198Source: StoneX

Production finished May on strong note, holding near 108 BCF/d, with monthly output averaging about 107.4 BCF/d. Estimates this morning show production down over 1 BCF/d to around 106.9 BCF/d, though this level is likely to be revised higher. Looking ahead, projections for the next two weeks suggest output will average near 107.3 BCF/d, indicating overall elevated supply.

image 132197
Source: StoneX

image-20260602082031-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The July 26 natural gas contract began the new week of trade on Monday with a steep sell off losing .111 (3.4%) to close the day at 3.179.

Yesterday’s sell off came after a rally higher last week which stalled at 200-day moving average resistance on the daily continuation chart.

3.140-3.150 is near term support for the July contract followed closely by the 10-day moving average at 3.090.  

A drop under the 10-day average will turn 2.980-3.000 and the 40-day moving average currently at 2.825 into the next areas of support.

Monday’s 3.396 high extending up to the 200-day moving average at 3.430 remains primary resistance.  

A breakout above the 200-day average will turn the longer-term trend back higher with the top of an open gap created in early-February between 3.735-3.820 becoming the next upside objective.

Technical Indicators: 

Moving Average Alignment - Neutral-Bullish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index – 59.25

image 132193

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 132191

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 132192

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 132114

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 132115

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 132190

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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