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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 8-11-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20250811073435-1
Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

StoneX Commodity Indicator

image-20250811073501-2

Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Following a midweek rally, bullish momentum continued to lose steam on Friday, with prices retreating back below $3 by the afternoon. While near-term heat and expectations for a surge in cooling demand initially supported the rally, those gains were ultimately overshadowed by ample storage levels and high production levels.  The Sep contract settled  7.7 cents to settle at $2.99.

image 117430
Source: Bloomberg, CME

LNG feedgas flows have recovered from Friday’s level of 15.5 BCF/day as flows to Plaquemines hit record levels over the weekend.  Feedgas demand is estimated this morning at 17 BCF/day and is projected to remain at this level over the coming 2 weeks. Month to date, feedgas flows are averaging 16.2 BCF/day, up 3.3 BCF/day from last year. 

image 117431​​​​
Source: Bloomberg

Very strong production levels are helping offset the impact of hotter than normal conditions and record LNG feedgas flows.  Output climbed tot 107.6 BCF/day on Friday, ramping up further over the weekend, reaching 108 BCF/day as of this morning. Month to date, production is averaging 107.2 BCF/day, 4.4 BCF/day higher than last year. Output is projected to remain elevated with estimates hovering around 108 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.

The nat gas rig count fell by 1 rig last week to 123 rigs which is up 26 rigs from a year ago.  This followed an increase of 16 rigs over the previous 3 weeks.  

image 117432
Source: Bloomberg

Despite forecasts for widespread heat this week, sentiment remains bearish this morning.   Weekend forecasts shifted for the 11-15 day period, showing cooler conditions across the eastern US and warmer conditions across the West.  The revision is weighing on prices with the spot month currently trading 2 to 3 cents lower. 

Technical Analysis

image-20250811073555-3
Source: Bloomberg, CME

 

The September 25 natural gas contract lost .093 in last week’s trade closing Friday at 2.990.

The primary trend remains sideways to down with key support at the 2.858 (April low) extending up to 2.885 (current overnight low).

This support has been will bid and needs to be broken to extend the downtrend.

If 2.858 support is broken, 2.750 will become the next downside objective.

Last week’s 3.148 high is primary resistance.  A breakout above this high will turn the near term trend back up with the 40 day moving average at 3.345 becoming the next upside resistance.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 38.89

 

 

image 117435
Source: Bloomberg, CME

 

image 117434
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 117433
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 116960
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
image 116959
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

 

image 117436
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer

 

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(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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