Yesterday (13), the most active Brent contract closed higher at USD 99.36/bbl (+4.40%). WTI futures followed a similar path, ending the session at USD 99.08/bbl (+2.60%).
The move was driven by the formal announcement of a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, following the frustration of weekend negotiations in Islamabad. At peak levels, prices rose by more than USD 8/bbl, but signals that diplomatic channels remain open contained part of the move. The physical market, in turn, remains decoupled from futures, with Dated Brent trading above USD 130/bbl.
This morning (14), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is down 0.62%, quoted at USD 98.74/bbl as of 08:30. The negative opening reflects the partial resumption of dialogue between Washington and Tehran, with negotiators from both countries signaling a possible return to Islamabad later this week.
U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues
CENTCOM formally implemented the naval blockade of Iranian ports at 11:00 yesterday (Brasília time), extending its scope to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At least two vessels reversed course as they approached the strait in the first hours of operation, while three Iran-linked tankers were able to transit because their destinations were outside Iranian ports.
Why does it matter? The Strait of Hormuz, responsible for around 20% of global oil and gas flows, has already been operating under severely restricted conditions since the start of the conflict. The blockade adds a new layer of operational uncertainty: in addition to Iranian traffic restrictions, shipowners now face the risk of U.S. interdiction, further reducing transit volumes.
Overview: The suspension of exports from the Persian Gulf represents the largest oil and gas supply disruption in history. Transit through the strait is operating at well below normal volumes, and exports via alternative routes — such as western Saudi Arabia, Fujairah, and the ITP pipeline toward Ceyhan — have been expanded, but remain insufficient to offset the losses.
- Flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell to around 3.8 mbpd in early April, compared with more than 20 mbpd in February, before the conflict began. Net export losses exceed 13 mbpd when accounting for production shutdowns and damage to regional infrastructure.
- CENTCOM made clear that the blockade does not prevent neutral transit of vessels bound for non-Iranian destinations, and that humanitarian cargoes will be allowed subject to inspection. In practice, however, uncertainty regarding rule enforcement has already significantly reduced chartering activity.
- As of Tuesday morning, at least three Iran-linked tankers transited the strait without interception, given that their destinations were ports in third countries.
- The International Maritime Organization estimated that around 1,600 vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, illustrating the operational impact of the crisis.
What to expect? In the coming hours, the market will remain sensitive to any signals from both sides regarding a return to negotiations in Islamabad. The persistence of the blockade without major incidents could dampen part of the rally, but the window for reopening the route remains narrow and conditional on diplomatic progress.
- A possible resumption of talks between the U.S. and Iran is a factor that could limit further oil price increases.
- At the same time, the wide gap between prices in the physical and financial markets may contribute to a new, faster upswing in quotations — especially in a context of divergence between the two delegations.
IEA data point to a sharp decline in global production in March
In its monthly report released on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency confirmed a 10.1 mbpd reduction in global oil production in March, highlighting the impacts of suspended flows through the Persian Gulf.
At the same time, the IEA revised its 2026 projections, now forecasting declines in both global oil supply and demand relative to 2025. Demand, which in March was expected to grow by 640 kbpd this year, is now projected to fall by 80 kbpd — the largest contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Why does it matter? The IEA revision signals that the supply shock has begun to translate into demand destruction more quickly and broadly than previously expected, with impacts already measurable in petrochemicals, LPG, and aviation fuel in Asia and the Middle East. The market is now operating with the prospect of persistently declining inventories even amid lower consumption.
Overview: The IEA presents two scenarios: a base case, which assumes a partial resumption of flows through Hormuz by mid-2026, and an alternative scenario in which the disruption is prolonged and forces a drawdown of nearly 2 billion barrels from global inventories, with demand falling by 5 mbpd between the second and fourth quarters.
- The IEA estimates that, in the base scenario, supply will exceed demand by just 410 kbpd in 2026, compared with a projected surplus of 2.46 mbpd in the previous report — a reduction reflecting both lost production and demand destruction.
What to expect? In the coming months, the trajectory of global inventories will be the key indicator to watch: if negotiations do not advance before the second quarter, the inventory draw projected by the IEA could deepen pressure on physical prices, which are already trading well above futures. The agency’s alternative scenario, with prolonged disruption, is likely to gain market weight with each week without an agreement.
