Oil advances amid new attacks on vessels in Hormuz
Yesterday (21), the most active Brent contract closed higher, totaling USD 99.67 bbl (+4.4%). WTI futures followed a similar path, ending the day at USD 92.13 bbl (+2.8%).
The move was driven by rising uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. During the session, Brent briefly surpassed USD 101 following reports that the U.S. Vice President had canceled a trip to Islamabad for peace negotiations.
Prices partially retreated after Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire, but maintained significant gains amid the continued U.S. naval blockade and the near-total halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
This morning (22), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading up 1.2%, quoted at USD 99.6 bbl as of 11:52 a.m. (GMT).
Trump announces extension of ceasefire with Iran
Late yesterday afternoon, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a unilateral extension of the ceasefire with Iran for an indefinite period. The move followed a day marked by renewed threats of a resumption of the conflict with the Persian Gulf country, which contributed to higher prices ahead of the White House announcement. Despite the extension of the truce, it was confirmed that at least three vessels were attacked on Wednesday morning while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to maritime security sources and the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
Why this matters: Despite a reduction in risks associated with a conflict escalation following the announcement of the ceasefire extension, the market is increasingly pricing in restrictions on oil and refined product flows through the Persian Gulf for a period exceeding 50 days. Reports of broad stress in the commodity balance in Asia and Europe are helping keep energy prices at elevated levels.
- With traffic through the strait nearly halted, any new attack reinforces the supply risk premium in prices and discourages vessels from returning to the route. The continued paralysis turns a temporary supply shock into a growing structural deficit.
- Since the war began on February 28, the market has already accumulated an estimated loss of around 1 billion barrels of oil that failed to move through the route, according to maritime tracking data.
What to expect: In the short term, any sign of a resumption in commercial traffic through the strait will depend on the progress of peace negotiations in Islamabad and clearer signaling from Tehran regarding the ceasefire. The continued U.S. and Iranian naval blockade reduces this probability in the near term, keeping the risk premium elevated in the coming sessions.
- Meanwhile, supply disruptions amid more severe shortages in some regions allow oil prices to trade again above USD 100 bbl, especially in the Asian market, where fuel-importing countries are beginning to show increasingly significant deficit signals.
- It is also important to note that key U.S. government leaders involved in the diplomatic negotiations have not returned to Islamabad, indicating difficulties between the Washington and Tehran delegations in defining certain points necessary to conclude a peace resolution.
API reports decline in U.S. oil and product inventories
Preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated late yesterday that inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and diesel in the U.S. declined in the week ending April 17, reversing three consecutive weeks of increases. The EIA will release official data this Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. (ET).
Why this matters: A larger-than-expected inventory draw, in the context of strong exports to Europe and Asia, would be interpreted by the market as evidence that foreign consumers are front-loading purchases amid the unavailability of products from the Persian Gulf — reinforcing support for current price levels.
- It is worth noting that since the start of the Persian Gulf conflict, U.S. exports of fossil fuel derivatives have grown rapidly, reaching a historical record in the last week of March.
- At the same time, the impacts of the war are becoming more visible in U.S. commercial crude inventory levels, which have been declining even amid increased releases from strategic reserves initiated in early April.
Change in U.S. oil and product inventories
Source: API, BBG. Prepared by: StoneX.
What to expect? Confirmation by the EIA of a larger-than-expected inventory draw is likely to provide additional support for Brent in the coming sessions. The data will be interpreted alongside weekly export levels: if both confirm external demand pressure, the market may incorporate a new short-term price floor.
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