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By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
As of February 19, 2026, EUR/USD is pressing into the 2025 high close, a level reinforced by the January yearly open and the February monthly opening range. This convergence creates a high-stakes inflection zone where weekly and daily closes carry structural significance. Price action has compressed around this pivot, signaling that the next directional move may stem from how the market resolves this cluster. In a direct market update, the focus was placed squarely on whether EUR/USD can sustain support into the weekly close.
Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, has spent years analysing multi-timeframe technical structures across major currency pairs. His work centres on identifying confluence zones where yearly, monthly, and weekly pivots align, providing early signals of potential trend transitions in the EUR/USD exchange rate.
EUR/USD is confronting a structural decision point as multiple higher time frame pivots converge at the 2025 high close. Boutros states "We are testing a critical pivot zone in EUR/USD", highlighting that the level defines the boundary between consolidation and potential reversal. He adds that "If we were to manage a weekly and even a daily close below, this would suggest the potential for more downside a larger turn in EUR/USD", directly tying confirmation to closing behavior rather than intraday volatility. Consequently, a sustained break would likely shift market positioning toward a broader downside extension in EUR/USD.
EUR/USD downside momentum would likely accelerate if the February monthly opening range gives way. Boutros emphasises that "You need to see a concerted close below 1.1745 to fuel the next downside", identifying the trigger level that would validate bearish continuation. Initial support sits at 1.1686, followed by the January low day close near 1.1644 to 1.1645, which converges with the 200-day moving average. Beyond that, equal leg projections toward 1.1616 and the December swing low near 1.1590 suggest that even a corrective structure could extend into a deeper retracement if selling pressure intensifies.
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--- Written by Lindo Xulu, StoneX TV Journalist
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst
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