Financial Markets Morning Commentary
Financial Markets Morning Commentary
Tom Pawlicki
- Interest Rates
Financial Markets Morning Commentary
By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence
Economic
- 10-year futures are +9/32. Yields are -3.60 bps at 4.455%. S&P futures are -25.00. Oil futures are around $3.00/bbl lower with most of that weakness coming after 6am CDT. There was news yesterday evening about Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a ceasefire. although Israel’s defense minister said that strikes in southern Lebanon would continue for the time being. Hezbollah has not responded to the news yet. There are comments on social media attributed to President Trump where he said there could be an agreement with Iran over the weekend, but that it could also take another 2-3 weeks. Iran said that there has been no progress in talks. Stocks are lower on disappointment after earnings reports from Broadcom and CrowdStrike.
- EIA natural gas inventories are out later today, while nonfarm payrolls are due tomorrow. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are due to speak today before the Fed's pre-meeting blackout period begins.
- (Reuters) Initial jobless claims were 225K vs. 213K expected and 212K previously. Continuing claims were 1.777 mln vs. 1.780 mln expected and 1.785 mln previously (revised from 1.786 mln).
- (Reuters) Q1 Productivity was revised to +0.3% vs. +0.8%. Unit labor costs were 1.8% vs. 2.3%.
- (Reuters) Challenger layoffs were 97.006K in May vs. 83.387K previously.
- (Reuters) ISM non-manufacturing PMI reported yesterday morning was 54.5 vs. 53.8 expected and 53.6 previously. Prices paid were 71.3 vs. 70.7 while employment was 47.9 vs. 48.0.
- (Wire Services) Agricultural Secretary Rollins announced additional USDA personnel deployment to South Texas, and urged livestock producers to remain vigilant, while she stated that potential New World screwworm detection is being fully contained and is not a harm to US food supply or safety.
- (Reuters) Broadcom shares slumped 13.5% in premarket trading after the chipmaker also stuck to its long-range forecast of $100 billion in sales from its AI chips. The stock, which has climbed nearly 55% this quarter, could shave off over $270 billion in market value, if losses sustain through the session.
- (Reuters) CrowdStrike slumped 10.4% after the cybersecurity company reported a rise in its first-quarter operating expenses.
- (Reuters) An investor roadshow for Elon Musk-led SpaceX begins on Thursday ahead of its market debut on June 12.
- (Bloomberg) Five Below falls 10% after the retailer reported results, and while the quarter was a “standout,” the growth rate might be peaking, according to Jefferies.
- (Bloomberg) PVH slides 22% after reaffirmed adjusted earnings-per-share guidance from the owner of the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands missed consensus estimates. Analysts note sustained pressures from the Middle East conflict.
- (Reuters) The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates this month unless a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict upends markets, three sources said, as rising fuel costs from the energy shock add to mounting price pressure in the economy. Markets are already pricing in roughly an 80% chance the BOJ will raise its short-term policy rate to 1% from 0.75% at the two-day policy meeting ending on June 16. A hike to 1% would bring the BOJ's policy rate to levels unseen since 1995.
Geopolitical
- (Reuters) Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a new ceasefire after U.S.-mediated talks, the Trump administration said, raising hopes for progress toward ending the wider U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said on Thursday that the ceasefire would come into force within 24 hours of all concerned parties approving it, appearing to refer to Hezbollah, which has not commented on the agreement. Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday the military would continue to strike in Lebanon for the time being and would not be withdrawing from the south.
- (Bloomberg) Iran said there had been no recent progress in talks with the US over an interim peace deal, while fighting persisted in Lebanon despite Washington’s declaration of a ceasefire between Israel and the country. Still, both Iran and the US broadly say the talks are ongoing and signal they want to reach a deal, which would lead to more and complicated discussions on Tehran’s nuclear program.
- (Wire Services) President Trump said they have been hitting Iran pretty hard and Iran negotiations are going well, while he suggested a deal could happen over the weekend. However, he also noted that it could take another two or three weeks.
- (Reuters) The U.S. House of Representatives approved a resolution on Wednesday to block President Donald Trump from continuing the war against Iran. The House voted 215 to 208, as four Republicans voted with Democrats in favor of the war powers resolution. For now, the vote is largely symbolic, as legislation must pass the Senate as well as the House to become effective, and there is debate over whether war powers resolutions would be constitutional even if they are approved by Congress.
- (Reuters) President Donald Trump has told aides privately that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran kills American troops, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing U.S. officials.
- (Reuters) President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that under a deal being discussed with Iran, "we will get" Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which has been a major sticking point in negotiations.
- (Reuters) Russian shelling killed at least three civilians in Ukraine's frontline city of Kramatorsk in the east and Moscow's forces attacked areas near the southeastern city of Dnipro with drones and missiles, officials said on Wednesday.
- (Reuters) Three people were killed and another seven injured in Ukraine's attack on the city of Simferopol in Russia-annexed Crimea, the Moscow-installed governor said on Thursday.
- (Reuters) Russian investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev said on Thursday that Russia will have contacts with U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner this week, state news agency RIA reported.
Energy
- WTI is -$3.18/bbl at $92.84/bbl, while Brent is -$3.02/bbl at $94.79/bbl. Natural gas is +$0.073/MMBtu at $3.287/MMBtu.
- (Reuters) Russian oil production has fallen since the start of the year, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday, blaming the decline on unplanned maintenance at refineries. Novak's comments mark the first time a Russian official has acknowledged that output this year has declined.
- (Reuters) Iranian oil prices slipped into discounts for the first time since April, while Russian crude premiums eased as traders cut prices to entice Chinese buyers amid sluggish demand, trade sources said. Iranian Light crude cargoes are being offered at a discount of 50 cents to $1 per barrel to ICE Brent contract for delivery to China's eastern province of Shandong this month, three traders said, down from premiums of $1 to $2 in the past two months.
Metals
- Gold is +$60.40/oz, trading at $4,527.30/oz, while silver is +$0.916/oz at $74.61/oz.
- The dollar index is -0.305 points at 99.224.
- (Reuters) Physical investment is set to replace jewelry as the largest component of gold demand for the first time this year due to double-digit losses in jewelry amid high prices, consultancy Metals Focus said in its annual report on Thursday. Metals Focus expects gold to resume its bull run in the second half of 2026 and sees the average gold price surging 43% to a new record high of $4,920 per ounce in 2026, assuming that the economic and political costs of a prolonged conflict drive a swift resolution.
- (Reuters) Copper edged down on Thursday amid fears of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates and proposed new U.S. tariffs, while progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran remained unclear.
- Interest Rates
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Interest Rates
The MarketWatch Update
Today's commodity market news and analysis/advisory guidance.
US RJO - Scott Magnuson, CTA
- Precious Metals
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Currencies
- Interest Rates
Financial Markets Morning Commentary
Financial Markets Morning Commentary
Tom Pawlicki
- Interest Rates
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.