June grain options start trading.
Japan’s prime minister warned that the government is ready to act against speculative market behavior as the yen weakens and government bond yields rise, signaling growing concern about disorderly moves rather than gradual, fundamentals-driven trends. The comments represent a clear escalation in verbal intervention, aimed at discouraging aggressive speculation in both foreign exchange and bonds while reminding markets that authorities are prepared to respond if volatility accelerates. While no immediate action was announced, the message suggests Japan’s tolerance for sharp yen depreciation and rising yields is limited, raising the risk of intervention or additional market support if conditions worsen.
A Bloomberg report said BlackRock’s global fixed income chief investment officer Rick Rieder is emerging as a serious contender for the top job at the Federal Reserve, with his Wall Street background and openness to policy changes resonating with White House decision-makers. The report, which cited people familiar with the deliberations, fueled market speculation that future Fed leadership could be more flexible and sensitive to financial conditions. That shift in expectations was seen as one factor behind recent dollar weakness and strength in commodities, as investors began to price in a greater likelihood of easier monetary policy and lower real interest rates.
Canada is doubling down on its “elbows up” trade posture, arguing that diversification away from the United States—particularly toward markets like India—is necessary economic self-preservation, even as Washington escalates pressure with threats of 100% tariffs if Canada becomes a conduit for Chinese goods. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Foreign Minister Anita Anand insist Ottawa will respect USMCA commitments and is not pursuing free trade with China, but that message is colliding with a harsher reality: India’s and China’s markets are far more restrictive than diversification rhetoric implies, especially for agriculture, where tariffs, quotas, state controls, and sudden policy shifts routinely limit access. India remains highly protectionist, while China’s market is opaque and politically contingent. Against that backdrop, Canada’s effort to pivot away from its most open, reliable, and deeply integrated customer looks like a strategic overreach—effectively trading a known North American anchor for uncertain alternatives—leaving Ottawa exposed to retaliation, weaker leverage, and markets that can close faster than they open.
Poland’s finance minister Andrzej Domański said the country is in no hurry to adopt the euro, arguing that the economic case has weakened as Poland has outperformed most euro-zone economies in recent years. Speaking to the Financial Times, he emphasized that keeping its own currency gives Poland greater monetary-policy flexibility and helps preserve competitiveness, especially as growth across the euro area remains uneven, making euro adoption a longer-term option rather than an immediate priority.
China has abruptly purged Zhang Youxia, one of the most powerful figures in the People’s Liberation Army, accusing him of serious disciplinary and legal violations and of undermining President Xi Jinping’s authority over the military. According to reporting by the Wall Street Journal, internal briefings have gone further, alleging that Zhang leaked sensitive information about China’s nuclear-weapons program to the United States and accepted bribes in exchange for promotions and official favors, though these specific claims have not been publicly confirmed by Chinese authorities. The move represents a major escalation in Xi’s ongoing military purge, underscoring intense concerns about loyalty, corruption, and control at the highest levels of China’s armed forces, even as the most explosive allegations remain opaque and unproven.
The January 28 FOMC meeting is widely expected to result in no rate cut, with the CME Group FedWatch Tool assigning a 97.2% probability to rates staying unchanged, making the decision itself largely a non-event and shifting focus to the Fed’s tone and guidance. At the same time, a heavy slate of Dow Jones–linked earnings reports puts corporate outlooks front and center, with investors closely watching management commentary on demand trends, margins, and capital spending amid higher-for-longer rates. Together, the Fed’s messaging and earnings guidance will determine whether the market’s soft-landing narrative holds, as any dovish nuance from policymakers combined with steady corporate outlooks would support risk assets, while firm Fed rhetoric or weakening guidance could quickly revive volatility and rate-cut expectations.
Spot gold surged to a fresh record high, breaking above the USD 5,000 per ounce level for the first time ever, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and strong momentum across precious metals. The rally was reinforced by sharp gains in silver, which briefly pushed above USD 109 per ounce, underscoring broad-based investor demand for hard assets amid supportive currency and macro conditions.
| Outside Markets | Price | Change | % Change | |
| Dow | 49,230 | (33.00) | -0.07 | |
| Crude | 61.18 | 0.11 | 0.18 | |
| US Dollar | 96.9100 | (0.494) | -0.51 | |
| Gold | 5,093.24 | 105.750 | 2.12 | |
| US 2/10 Swap | 61.7390 | (1.1710) | - | |
| VIX | 17.07 | 0.98 | - | |
| | | | | |
| CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest | | | |
| | Previous Volume | Change in OI | Options Volume | Change in Options OI |
| Corn | 474,321 | 18,732 | 110,328 | (188,785) |
| SRW | 162,631 | 7,727 | 26,648 | (42,519) |
| HRW | 81,254 | 5,746 | - | (9,472) |
| Soybeans | 194,660 | 5,871 | 57,176 | (88,964) |
| Meal | 176,125 | 757 | 30,426 | (30,926) |
| Oil | 168,883 | 6,665 | 29,572 | (26,316) |
| Feeders | 22,621 | (227) | 7,120 | (769) |
| Live Cattle | 75,210 | 1,110 | 42,071 | (2,690) |
| Hogs | 46,022 | 4,079 | 11,590 | 3,272 |
| | | | | |
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 100 z 500 c 12 3/4
S 250 sd h 455 c 5
S 650 h 440 c 3 1/4
S 1000 h 430 p 6 1/2
B 175 j 450 c 5 3/8 vs 438 1/2
B 300 k 460 c 5 ¾ vs 437 1/2
B 100 k 450 c 9
S 100 h 435 c 4 7/8 vs 431
B 200 h 410/395 ps 5/8
B 200 h 415 p 1 1/2
Beans
S 1000 x 1150 c vs b 2000 x 1300 c and 1000 x 970 p even to ½ db
B 500 h 1090 c 9 ¼ to 9 5/8
Soymeal
B 100 h 330 c 1.15 vs 300.0
Bean oil
S 100 w1 53 p .460
S 100 w1 5250 p .320
S 100 w1 52 p .220
Wheat
B 500 h 520 p 7 ½ to 7 7/8
Kc wheat
S 400 h 535/545 cs 4 1/2
B 400 h 555/565 cs 2 5/8
Open interest changes
Corn
March 435 call buy, march 430 put sale, march 420 put buy and dec 600 call buys were new....march 430/405 ps buy was rolling a long....march 450 call buy and march 430 straddle buys were closing
Beans
W5 1060/1040 1x2 ps buy and march 1060 put buys were new....march 1040 put sale and march 1200 call buys were closing ...march 1060/1040 and 1050/1040 put spreads buys were rolling longs
Soymeal
March 300 call buy, march 410 call buy, w5 295/290 put spread buy, w5 305 call buy and may 300 call buys were new....july 300 put buy, july 305 put buy and july 310 put buys were closing
Bean oil
March 53 put buy was new....march 50 put buy, july 60 call buy and march 60 call buys were closing...may 60/65 call spread buy was rolling a short
Wheat
March 550 call buy, march 555 call buy and dec 600 call sales were new
Live cattle
Feb 224/216 put spread sale was closing.
Feeder cattle
May 320/290 put spread sale was closing
Cvol
Ags 17.47% up .35%
Corn 15.48% up .57%
Beans 13.99% up .74%
Soymeal 24.51% up 3.01%
Bean oil 27.26% down .77%
Wheat 23.92% up 1.38%
Feeder cattle 17.69% down .15%
Live cattle 15.69% down .26%
Lean hogs 19.54% up .10%
Class 3 milk 17.59% up 1.80%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Crush
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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