By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USDBRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBRL Variations | Daily: -1.00% | Weekly: -0.94% | Monthly: -4.38% | Annual: -9.54% | Over 12 Months: -12.71%
Dollar Index Variations | Daily: -0.92% | Weekly: -0.45% | Monthly: -1.77% | Annual: -0.27% | Over 12 Months: -1.49%
Changes in Nonfarm Payroll (thousands) and Unemployment Rate (%) in the United States
This week’s packed agenda includes the release of key U.S. economic indicators, particularly the Employment Situation Report and April’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
Why It Matters: These indicators are likely to continue signaling a robust U.S. economy, which, combined with inflationary pressures stemming from global oil supply constraints, may reduce the odds of Fed interest rate cuts.
What to Expect: The median forecast for the Employment Situation Report predicts net job creation of 73,000 in April, exceeding the six-month average of 15,000.
U.S.: Historical and Projected Interest Rate Trends – Updated April 24, 2026
Investors are closely monitoring the release of minutes from the Brazilian Central Bank’s latest Copom meeting, where the Selic rate was reduced from 14.75% to 14.50% annually.
Why It Matters: Signals of greater caution and a potential slowdown in Selic rate cuts could lead to higher interest rate expectations, strengthening the real.
Shifting Expectations: Since the onset of the Middle East conflict in late February, inflation expectations for the 2026 year-end IPCA have risen from 3.91% to 4.61%, exceeding the target ceiling.
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