Gold Momentum Has Turned Bearish, So Why Is the Uptrend Still Holding?

Gold's bearish momentum signal has not broken the uptrend, because a momentum warning only becomes a trend change once price confirms it with a sustained break of support. That distinction matters more than usual for precious metals. Gold is sitting on the rising support that has carried its multi-month advance, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields test multi-decade highs and the U.S. dollar index holds near its yearly peak. For anyone trading gold, the gap between what momentum is hinting and what price has actually confirmed is where the real risk sits.

Razan Hilal, CMT, StoneX Media Market Analyst, based in Dubai, with seven years of market analysis experience covering forex, stocks, commodities and equity indices. As a Chartered Market Technician, she specializes in technical and intermarket analysis, the work of reading trend structure and momentum on the gold chart alongside moves in bond yields and the dollar.

Key Themes

• Gold's daily momentum sits below the neutral 50 line while price still holds its multi-month uptrend support.
• Gold's key support aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its latest advance, making it a critical test.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields at multi-decade highs are a key source of pressure on gold and silver.

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Gold Uptrend Holds Above Its Broken Multi-Month Resistance

"Gold is attempting to hold a strong multi-month bullish structure as it holds beyond the bounds of the declining resistance", Hilal says of the daily chart. Gold's uptrend remains intact because price is still trading above the declining resistance line that capped it from the yearly highs, and above the rising support line connecting its higher lows. That breakout is what turned the chart bullish in the first place, so the structure it created is the benchmark every new signal gets measured against. Notably, gold's current support also lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest advance, which is why the level carries so much weight. As long as that zone holds, the bullish structure stays in place, whatever the shorter-term indicators are saying. For gold traders, a cooling in momentum matters less than a break in the uptrend itself, and so far that break has not come.

Gold Momentum Below Neutral Flags a Bias Without Confirming It

Gold's daily momentum is hovering below the neutral 50 mark, a reading that flashes a bearish bias without yet changing the trend. Gold bulls, Hilal explains, are "facing mounting pressure as a result of rising bond yields", with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields testing multi-decade highs. A momentum reading below neutral tells traders that buying pressure is fading, but it says nothing definitive about direction until price follows through. In technical terms, that bias is only confirmed by a sustained breakdown below the multi-month support, and until then it remains a warning rather than a verdict. Traders who act on the signal early risk being caught out if support holds and the uptrend resumes. Waiting for price to confirm what momentum is suggesting is how chart-based traders separate a pause in a rally from the start of a reversal.

Gold Bull Case Rests on a Pullback in Treasury Yields

Gold's path from here depends on what U.S. 10-year Treasury yields do next, holding at their multi-decade highs or pulling back from them. A sustained hold for yields at that extreme would point to another risk-off phase, and a confirmed break of gold's uptrend support would open the way back toward the lows where the latest advance began. Below that, the chart shows a deeper long-term confluence zone, where the 38.2% retracement of gold's all-time advance meets a multi-month resistance line that price respected earlier in the cycle. Conversely, if gold holds its support and turns higher, confidence in the bullish structure would begin to rebuild. The yield extreme can also be read from a contrarian angle, as a possible turning point for markets rather than simply a source of pressure. According to Hilal, a renewed rally in the silver chart would likely be aligned with "a renewed risk on sentiment across the markets and a probable pullback" in U.S. bond yields and crude oil prices.

 

--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media

--- Expert: Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst