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Sr. Technical Strategist
Gold is on track for a seventh weekly decline out of the past nine, and the precious metal is now pressing against a major support zone it has held for four straight weeks. For gold, the Federal Reserve rate decision and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index release that follows a day later are the next major catalysts, with a decisive close below support needed to confirm a deeper pullback. Markets are pricing roughly an 87% chance that the Federal Reserve holds rates, which puts the spotlight on the inflation data that follows.
Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, has spent more than 20 years trading and analyzing FX, commodities, and equity indices across numerous trade desks. He applies a structured technical approach across multiple time frames with a medium-term, event-driven focus, tracking how scheduled releases such as central bank decisions and inflation data meet key chart zones in markets including gold.
Gold has spent four straight weeks sitting just above a major support zone without a decisive break, even as the precious metal heads for its seventh weekly loss in nine. Specifically, that zone combines a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance off the yearly low with a trend line confirmed at three points over more than a year. "We've tried to break this multiple times, so it's really going to be important that the daily close materializes," Boutros says of what gold bears need to stay in control. Markets, meanwhile, are pricing roughly an 87% probability that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged, setting up the rate decision as the next event gold has to clear. As a result, a confirmed close below support heading into the Federal Reserve meeting would validate the breakdown, whereas another failed break keeps the four-week floor in place for gold.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index lands the day after the Federal Reserve rate decision, giving gold two major event risks back to back. According to Boutros, "That's the Fed's preferred inflationary gauge, so might be the next major catalyst for gold." Notably, a hold is already heavily priced, which keeps attention on the inflation data that follows the decision for gold. In contrast to the chart-driven grind of recent weeks, gold's direction now rests on how both releases land, which is why Boutros stresses the need to "stay nimble here and watch the weekly and daily closes" for gold.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst
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Gold is pressing against a major support zone while the Federal Reserve rate decision and core PCE inflation data line up back to back. With a hold already heavily priced, the inflation release that follows the decision now takes on extra weight for gold.
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