By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
Gold has given back 12.6% from its August high and slipped to a nine-week low, putting it on course for a sixth losing week out of seven if it closes lower. Rising 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are putting steady downside pressure on gold, and that pressure has now carried the metal into a critical technical support zone. The zone is where a long-running Fibonacci retracement and a trendline in place since 2024 converge, which makes it a test of gold's entire advance off the yearly low. With the bond market still pushing higher and Federal Reserve minutes due to be dissected for clues on the close of the year, gold heads into the final stretch of the year with its technical floor under test.
Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, has more than 20 years of experience trading FX, commodities and equity indices across numerous trade desks, and has hosted the Weekly Strategy Webinar for over a decade. He analyzes markets through a structured, disciplined technical lens across multiple time frames, with a medium-term, event-driven focus that runs through gold's weekly, daily and four-hour charts.
Rising 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are adding downside pressure on gold, extending the metal's slide from its August high into a critical support zone. In that zone, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of gold's advance off the yearly low meets an ascending trendline Boutros has tracked since 2024. Boutros says the area carries real weight because "a weekly close below this zone would open up the potential for a retest of the yearly lows". For gold traders, the bond market and the chart are now pulling in the same direction. Climbing long-dated yields leave gold leaning on technical support to absorb the pressure.
"We've already gotten a host of Fed speakers since the last rate decision. So we kind of know where the committee stands," Boutros explains, which tempers expectations for a sharp gold reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee minutes. Markets will still dissect the minutes for insight into the Federal Reserve's thinking into the close of the year, keeping rate expectations and Treasury yields in focus for gold. According to Boutros, the bigger signal for gold is "what happens with this weekly opening range and eventually the monthly opening range". That shifts attention from the policy headlines to price itself. A breakout from those opening ranges, rather than the minutes alone, is what gold traders are watching for guidance.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst
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