By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Momentum signals across markets often shift before broader sentiment follows, making the early recalibration of key benchmarks especially important. The softness now visible in both the S and P and Bitcoin reflects how weekly exhaustion patterns and monthly confirmation thresholds can influence expectations. These technical elements matter because they reshape both short term posture and longer horizon positioning. Market participants are watching these changes closely as momentum increasingly depends on how price responds to the next series of tests.
Michael Ragazzo, Director of Tactical Strategies at StoneX, examines how these evolving signals frame the momentum picture across equity and crypto markets.
Weekly structure in the S and P provides one of the clearest indications of softening momentum as Ragazzo highlights a bearish doji pattern last seen near the close of 2024. The appearance of this formation on a weekly chart signals exhaustion and suggests that long liquidation can follow if confirmation builds. His explanation that the pattern “represents a form of exhaustion and confirmed incentivizing long liquidation” shows how sentiment can recalibrate quickly when structure weakens. These signals make the next tests of major averages more significant as traders evaluate whether momentum can stabilize or continue softening.
Bitcoin’s momentum picture is shaped by both a recent trend model sell signal and a developing monthly setup that traders are closely monitoring. Ragazzo notes that the model generated a signal when slope dynamics shifted, stating that “a sell signal was generated in the 112,000 area” as the trigger line met its conditions. The longer term view deepens the momentum risk as he explains that a negative monthly MACD crossover requires a close below a specific threshold before confirmation occurs. That requirement underscores why he stresses that confirmation “is needed at the end of the month because this is a monthly chart” and signals how momentum could turn more decisively.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX TV
--- Expert: Michael Ragazzo, Director of Tactical Strategies
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