| STATUS, INTENSITY AND TREND |
| Official NOAA status | Indicates whether El Niño conditions are already present. | El Niño Advisory · in effect since June 2026 (CPC/NCEP slides of 06/29/2026). | The event has already begun from an operational standpoint. | EL NIÑO PRESENT |
| Current intensity | Shows how strong the signal is right now (weekly OISST vs. quarterly RONI). | Weekly Niño 3.4: +1.2 °C (moderate range).
Quarterly RONI (MAM/2026): −0.1 °C — still neutral by the historical criterion, which requires 5 consecutive overlapping seasons ≥ +0.5 °C. | The weekly signal already points to El Niño; not yet a closed historical episode. | MODERATE |
| Forecast trend | Shows where the event may evolve in the coming months. | 63% chance of very strong El Niño in NDJ/2026-27 (CPC, 06/29/2026); ~1 in 3 chance of remaining weaker than very strong. CFS.v2 keeps El Niño through the boreal winter. | Climate risk rises in tier; specific impacts are not yet guaranteed. | STRENGTHENING LIKELY |
| OCEAN |
| Pacific waters (SST) | Shows whether the central and eastern Pacific is warmer than normal. | Weekly anomalies (OISST):
Niño 4 +0.6 °C · Niño 3.4 +1.2 °C · Niño 3 +1.5 °C · Niño 1+2 +2.5 °C. Warming concentrated in the eastern Pacific (Eastern Pacific — EP pattern): east–west gradient of +1.9 °C, strongest at the far east (Niño 1+2) and decreasing westward. | El Niño physical signal already consolidated across the equatorial band. | POSITIVE SIGNAL |
| Subsurface heat | Shows whether there is accumulated heat below the surface (0 to 300 m). | Subsurface heat anomaly increased again in the central Pacific (after a drop in Apr–May). A new downwelling Kelvin wave initiated in June 2026 (the 4th in this cycle) reinforces the heat reservoir at depth (0–300 m). | Heat is available to sustain the warming, and the reservoir has started growing again. | POSITIVE SIGNAL |
| Thermocline and upwelling | Shows the slope of the thermocline and the rise of cold waters in the east. | Thermocline slope index below average (flatter between west and east); reduced coastal upwelling off South America. | Less cold water favors the persistence of warm waters at the surface. | FAVORS EL NIÑO |
| ATMOSPHERE |
| Pacific winds | Shows whether trade winds are favoring (easterly) or hindering (westerly) El Niño. | Westerly anomalies at 850 hPa evident from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific over the last 30 days and persistent in the central Pacific. Trade winds remain weakened in the central basin. | The atmosphere is favoring the eastward expansion of the warming. | RESPONDING |
| Clouds and rainfall (OLR) | Via satellite, shows where it is raining more in the tropics: where there are heavy clouds and rainfall, less heat escapes to space; where it is dry, more heat escapes — this contrast reveals the tropical rainfall pattern. | Negative OLR (more clouds/rain) near the Date Line and over the central-eastern Pacific; positive OLR (dry conditions) over the Philippines, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, with re-emergence over Indonesia in early June. | Classic rainfall displacement in the El Niño pattern. | RESPONDING |
| Upper-level circulation (200 hPa) | Velocity potential at 200 hPa shows where the tropical atmosphere diverges (favors rain) or converges (suppresses rain). | Persistent anomalous divergence over the central-western equatorial Pacific and anomalous convergence over the eastern Pacific — pattern consistent with El Niño. | Confirms that ocean and atmosphere are moving in the same direction. | CONFIRMING |
