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Morning Commodity Insight (MCI): Technical Analysis and Trade Setup in Major Commodity Markets

By: Eli Tesfaye, Senior Market Strategist

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Thursday, June 4, 2026

TODAY'S MARKET MOVERS (All Times CT)

Time (CT)

Event

Consensus

Prior

Impact

Affected

07:30 AM

US: Initial Jobless Claims

215K

212K

HIGH

Macro, Indices, Currencies

07:30 AM

US: Weekly Export Sales

HIGH

Grains & Oilseeds

Source: CMEGroup.com

HOW TO USE THIS REPORT

This report provides daily market commentary. The Trend Probability Index (TPI) combines intraday range positioning with multi-timeframe pivot analysis to measure market structure. Unlike lagging indicators, MCI analyzes previous day's conviction to project the next session's probable trade setups. Each section presents the directional bias and key technical reference levels — pivot, support/resistance, and invalidation. Bias remains intact until settlement breaches the invalidation level. The framework is intended to inform your own analysis, not to replace it — apply independent judgment and risk management before any trading decision.

While others rely on lagging indicators, MCI measures directional bias through intraday range positioning and multi-timeframe technical structure. Trade smart. Trade informed. Trade with MCI.

MARGIN ESTIMATES: Margin and risk figures shown per contract are estimates based on exchange-published SPAN parameters and are subject to change without notice. Actual margin requirements are set by the exchanges and your FCM; always confirm with your broker before placing trades.

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MACRO

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Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERM26) | TPI: 0.39 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 136.86

DESK NOTE: The commodity index leaked a touch and marked the low into the bell. Net flat on the day, but a close on the floor keeps the tone soft.

TECH: Close: 137.15 | High: 137.51 | Low: 137.11 | R2: 137.66 | R1: 137.40 | Pivot: 137.26 | S1: 137.00 | S2: 136.86 | Weekly Pivot: 136.53 | TPI: 0.39 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($1.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Sellers remain in control below resistance.

Entry: Sell at 137.26 or below 137.00.

Stop: Above 137.40

Primary Target: 137.00

Extended Target: 136.86

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 137.40 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: ~$937 | Maintenance: ~$833 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($1.00)

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GRAINS & OILSEEDS

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Corn (ZCEN26) | TPI: 0.18 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 422.75

DESK NOTE: Corn got walked to the low and left there — better than nine cents lighter, sellers in full control. Weekly export sales hit at 7:30, the first real test of whether this slide has buyers waiting.

TECH: Close: 431.50 | High: 442.00 | Low: 430.25 | R2: 446.25 | R1: 439.00 | Pivot: 434.50 | S1: 427.25 | S2: 422.75 | Weekly Pivot: 440.25 | TPI: 0.18 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (440.25), sellers remain in control. Extended read — TPI 0.18 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.

Entry: Sell at 434.50 or below 427.25.

Stop: Above 439.00

Primary Target: 427.25

Extended Target: 422.75

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 439.00 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $1,210 | Maintenance: $1,100 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

──────────────────────────────────────────────────

Soybeans (ZSEN26) | TPI: 0.16 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 1139.50

DESK NOTE: Beans broke and kept breaking, finishing on the session low. Eleven and a quarter cents off and nothing stepped in to catch it.

TECH: Close: 1154.00 | High: 1172.75 | Low: 1152.50 | R2: 1180.00 | R1: 1167.00 | Pivot: 1159.75 | S1: 1146.75 | S2: 1139.50 | Weekly Pivot: 1169.00 | TPI: 0.16 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (1169.00), sellers remain in control. Extended read — TPI 0.16 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.

Entry: Sell at 1159.75 or below 1146.75.

Stop: Above 1167.00

Primary Target: 1146.75

Extended Target: 1139.50

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 1167.00 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $2,420 | Maintenance: $2,200 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

──────────────────────────────────────────────────

Soybean Oil (ZLEN26) | TPI: 0.46 | Bias: NEUTRAL

DESK NOTE: Oil was the lone green tint in the complex, a few ticks firmer while meal and the board sank. The close in the lower third keeps it middling.

TECH: Close: 78.71 | High: 79.55 | Low: 78.41 | R2: 80.03 | R1: 79.37 | Pivot: 78.89 | S1: 78.23 | S2: 77.75 | Weekly Pivot: 77.70 | TPI: 0.46 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($6.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Market remains range-bound with no confirmed directional edge.

Range: 78.23 to 79.37

Upside Break: Above 79.37 targets 80.03

Downside Break: Below 78.23 targets 77.75

MARGIN: Initial: $2,310 | Maintenance: $2,100 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($6.00)

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Soybean Meal (ZMEN26) | TPI: 0.15 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 315.2

DESK NOTE: Meal faded the whole way and settled on its lows, sellers carried it start to finish. Stretched this far down, though — the kind of reading where a correction rally traps whoever chases it lower.

TECH: Close: 320.8 | High: 328.4 | Low: 320.4 | R2: 331.2 | R1: 326.0 | Pivot: 323.2 | S1: 318.0 | S2: 315.2 | Weekly Pivot: 325.4 | TPI: 0.15 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (325.4), sellers remain in control. Extended read — TPI 0.15 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.

Entry: Sell at 323.2 or below 318.0.

Stop: Above 326.0

Primary Target: 318.0

Extended Target: 315.2

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 326.0 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $1,705 | Maintenance: $1,550 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)

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Chicago Wheat (ZWAN26) | TPI: 0.17 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 572.00

DESK NOTE: Wheat fell apart — fifteen and three-quarters cents lower, parked near the low. It failed to reclaim weekly structure and never threatened to.

TECH: Close: 587.25 | High: 606.75 | Low: 585.50 | R2: 614.50 | R1: 600.75 | Pivot: 593.25 | S1: 579.50 | S2: 572.00 | Weekly Pivot: 600.25 | TPI: 0.17 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (600.25), sellers remain in control. Extended read — TPI 0.17 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.

Entry: Sell at 593.25 or below 579.50.

Stop: Above 600.75

Primary Target: 579.50

Extended Target: 572.00

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 600.75 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $2,145 | Maintenance: $1,950 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

──────────────────────────────────────────────────

KC HRW Wheat (KWEN26) | TPI: 0.25 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 609.00

DESK NOTE: KC followed Chicago down, ten and three-quarters cents off and offered into the close. Hard red found no friends.

TECH: Close: 624.00 | High: 638.00 | Low: 619.75 | R2: 645.50 | R1: 634.75 | Pivot: 627.25 | S1: 616.50 | S2: 609.00 | Weekly Pivot: 638.50 | TPI: 0.25 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (638.50), sellers remain in control.

Entry: Sell at 627.25 or below 616.50.

Stop: Above 634.75

Primary Target: 616.50

Extended Target: 609.00

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 634.75 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $2,200 | Maintenance: $2,000 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

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LIVESTOCK

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Feeder Cattle (GFQ26) | TPI: 0.27 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 336.400

DESK NOTE: Feeders gave back ground and closed in the lower quarter. The bid that held them last week has gone quiet.

TECH: Close: 342.625 | High: 348.300 | Low: 340.800 | R2: 351.400 | R1: 347.025 | Pivot: 343.900 | S1: 339.525 | S2: 336.400 | Weekly Pivot: 346.525 | TPI: 0.27 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($12.50)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (346.525), sellers remain in control.

Entry: Sell at 343.900 or below 339.525.

Stop: Above 347.025

Primary Target: 339.525

Extended Target: 336.400

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 347.025 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $5,830 | Maintenance: $5,300 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($12.50)

──────────────────────────────────────────────────

Live Cattle (GLEQ26) | TPI: 0.46 | Bias: NEUTRAL

DESK NOTE: Live cattle held the middle despite the soft tape — down under two cents and parked mid-range. No edge either way.

TECH: Close: 237.850 | High: 240.225 | Low: 235.375 | R2: 242.675 | R1: 240.250 | Pivot: 237.825 | S1: 235.400 | S2: 232.975 | Weekly Pivot: 238.825 | TPI: 0.46 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($10.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Market remains range-bound with no confirmed directional edge.

Range: 235.400 to 240.250

Upside Break: Above 240.250 targets 242.675

Downside Break: Below 235.400 targets 232.975

MARGIN: Initial: $3,300 | Maintenance: $3,000 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($10.00)

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SOFTS

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Sugar #11 (SBEV26) | TPI: 0.30 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 14.44

DESK NOTE: Sugar handed back its perch and marked the low. Whoever pinned it up there earlier in the week has stepped aside.

TECH: Close: 14.75 | High: 15.14 | Low: 14.71 | R2: 15.30 | R1: 15.02 | Pivot: 14.87 | S1: 14.59 | S2: 14.44 | Weekly Pivot: 14.74 | TPI: 0.30 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($11.20)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Sellers remain in control below resistance.

Entry: Sell at 14.87 or below 14.59.

Stop: Above 15.02

Primary Target: 14.59

Extended Target: 14.44

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 15.02 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $875 | Maintenance: $795 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($11.20)

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Coffee (KCEU26) | TPI: 0.15 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 241.55

DESK NOTE: Coffee broke down again and sat on the low. Sellers kept control bell to bell.

TECH: Close: 247.60 | High: 255.60 | Low: 247.05 | R2: 258.65 | R1: 253.10 | Pivot: 250.10 | S1: 244.55 | S2: 241.55 | Weekly Pivot: 254.95 | TPI: 0.15 | Min Fluc: 0.05 ($18.75)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (254.95), sellers remain in control. Extended read — TPI 0.15 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.

Entry: Sell at 250.10 or below 244.55.

Stop: Above 253.10

Primary Target: 244.55

Extended Target: 241.55

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 253.10 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $6,827 | Maintenance: $6,206 | Min Fluc: 0.05 ($18.75)

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Cocoa (CCEU26) | TPI: 0.53 | Bias: NEUTRAL

DESK NOTE: Cocoa swung a wide band and settled dead center — forty dollars lower yet right at the midpoint. Two-sided and unresolved.

TECH: Close: 4144 | High: 4201 | Low: 4085 | R2: 4259 | R1: 4202 | Pivot: 4143 | S1: 4086 | S2: 4027 | Weekly Pivot: 4121 | TPI: 0.53 | Min Fluc: 1 ($10.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Market remains range-bound with no confirmed directional edge.

Range: 4086 to 4202

Upside Break: Above 4202 targets 4259

Downside Break: Below 4086 targets 4027

MARGIN: Initial: $6,380 | Maintenance: $5,800 | Min Fluc: 1 ($10.00)

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Cotton (CTEZ26) | TPI: 0.63 | Bias: BULLISH | Obj: 81.51

DESK NOTE: Cotton was the rare hold-out, flat on the day but closed up near its high with the weekly bid still doing the work. Acceptance up here keeps buyers in front.

TECH: Close: 80.51 | High: 80.88 | Low: 79.75 | R2: 81.51 | R1: 81.01 | Pivot: 80.38 | S1: 79.88 | S2: 79.25 | Weekly Pivot: 80.12 | TPI: 0.63 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($5.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Above support, buyers retain control.

Entry: Buy at 80.38 or above 81.01.

Stop: Below 79.88

Primary Target: 81.01

Extended Target: 81.51

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement below 79.88 negates the bullish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $2,343 | Maintenance: $2,130 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($5.00)

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METALS

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Gold (Q) (GCEQ26) | TPI: 0.29 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 4410.9

DESK NOTE: Gold got sold and stayed sold — fifty-three points lower, closing the lower third with no bounce worth the name.

TECH: Close: 4466.9 | High: 4525.1 | Low: 4454.0 | R2: 4553.1 | R1: 4510.0 | Pivot: 4482.0 | S1: 4438.9 | S2: 4410.9 | Weekly Pivot: 4496.5 | TPI: 0.29 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (4496.5), sellers remain in control.

Entry: Sell at 4482.0 or below 4438.9.

Stop: Above 4510.0

Primary Target: 4438.9

Extended Target: 4410.9

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 4510.0 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $24,691 | Maintenance: $22,446 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)

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Silver (SIEN26) | TPI: 0.36 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 71.260

DESK NOTE: Silver ran a wide range and finished lower third, the metal bid unwinding alongside gold.

TECH: Close: 73.694 | High: 75.625 | Low: 72.835 | R2: 76.840 | R1: 75.270 | Pivot: 74.050 | S1: 72.480 | S2: 71.260 | Weekly Pivot: 74.350 | TPI: 0.36 | Min Fluc: 0.005 ($25.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (74.350), sellers remain in control.

Entry: Sell at 74.050 or below 72.480.

Stop: Above 75.270

Primary Target: 72.480

Extended Target: 71.260

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 75.270 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $41,426 | Maintenance: $37,660 | Min Fluc: 0.005 ($25.00)

──────────────────────────────────────────────────

Copper (CPEN26) | TPI: 0.36 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 6.3430

DESK NOTE: Copper handed back the prior session's breakout and closed near the low. The leadership it flashed a day earlier is gone for now.

TECH: Close: 6.5075 | High: 6.6840 | Low: 6.4725 | R2: 6.7660 | R1: 6.6370 | Pivot: 6.5545 | S1: 6.4255 | S2: 6.3430 | Weekly Pivot: 6.4825 | TPI: 0.36 | Min Fluc: 0.0005 ($12.50)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Sellers remain in control below resistance.

Entry: Sell at 6.5545 or below 6.4255.

Stop: Above 6.6370

Primary Target: 6.4255

Extended Target: 6.3430

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 6.6370 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $13,200 | Maintenance: $12,000 | Min Fluc: 0.0005 ($12.50)

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ENERGY

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Crude Oil (CLEN26) | TPI: 0.72 | Bias: BULLISH | Obj: 99.04

DESK NOTE: Crude was the whole story — up better than two dollars and pressing into the close, the one risk asset nobody could sell. Buyers in command, and acceptance is building up top.

TECH: Close: 96.02 | High: 97.00 | Low: 93.45 | R2: 99.04 | R1: 97.53 | Pivot: 95.49 | S1: 93.98 | S2: 91.94 | Weekly Pivot: 93.12 | TPI: 0.72 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($10.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Above support, buyers retain control.

Entry: Buy at 95.49 or above 97.53.

Stop: Below 93.98

Primary Target: 97.53

Extended Target: 99.04

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement below 93.98 negates the bullish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: ~$12,885 | Maintenance: ~$11,467 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($10.00)

Mini equivalent: E-Mini Crude (QMEN26) — same levels apply, half size. Margin: ~$6,442 init / ~$5,734 maint.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────

Natural Gas (NGEN26) | TPI: 0.54 | Bias: NEUTRAL

DESK NOTE: NatGas firmed into the upper half and settled near flat. Constructive tone, no conviction yet.

TECH: Close: 3.214 | High: 3.262 | Low: 3.143 | R2: 3.325 | R1: 3.270 | Pivot: 3.206 | S1: 3.151 | S2: 3.087 | Weekly Pivot: 3.222 | TPI: 0.54 | Min Fluc: 0.001 ($10.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Market remains range-bound with no confirmed directional edge.

Range: 3.151 to 3.270

Upside Break: Above 3.270 targets 3.325

Downside Break: Below 3.151 targets 3.087

MARGIN: Initial: ~$5,830 | Maintenance: ~$5,188 | Min Fluc: 0.001 ($10.00)

Mini equivalent: E-Mini Natural Gas (QGEN26) — same levels apply, quarter size. Margin: ~$1,458 init / ~$1,297 maint.

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CURRENCIES

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Euro FX (EU6M26) | TPI: 0.19 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 1.15760

DESK NOTE: The euro pinned its low and closed soft — the day went nowhere net, but the floor close keeps it heavy. Claims at 7:30 the next macro read, and down at these lows a snapback would catch the late sellers.

TECH: Close: 1.16045 | High: 1.16400 | Low: 1.16010 | R2: 1.16540 | R1: 1.16295 | Pivot: 1.16150 | S1: 1.15905 | S2: 1.15760 | Weekly Pivot: 1.16310 | TPI: 0.19 | Min Fluc: 0.00005 ($6.25)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (1.16310), sellers remain in control. Extended read — TPI 0.19 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.

Entry: Sell at 1.16150 or below 1.15905.

Stop: Above 1.16295

Primary Target: 1.15905

Extended Target: 1.15760

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 1.16295 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $2,640 | Maintenance: $2,400 | Min Fluc: 0.00005 ($6.25)

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Japanese Yen (JY6M26) | TPI: 0.19 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 0.0062335

DESK NOTE: Yen marked the low and closed weak, sellers leaning on it into the bell.

TECH: Close: 0.0062550 | High: 0.0062810 | Low: 0.0062520 | R2: 0.0062915 | R1: 0.0062735 | Pivot: 0.0062625 | S1: 0.0062445 | S2: 0.0062335 | Weekly Pivot: 0.0062670 | TPI: 0.19 | Min Fluc: 0.0000005 ($6.25)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (0.0062670), sellers remain in control. Extended read — TPI 0.19 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.

Entry: Sell at 0.0062625 or below 0.0062445.

Stop: Above 0.0062735

Primary Target: 0.0062445

Extended Target: 0.0062335

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 0.0062735 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: $2,860 | Maintenance: $2,600 | Min Fluc: 0.0000005 ($6.25)

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INDICES

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E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (ENQM26) | TPI: 0.57 | Bias: NEUTRAL

DESK NOTE: Nasdaq came off with the equity complex but held the middle — down near eighty points and still the index that gave back the least.

TECH: Close: 30633.25 | High: 30807.75 | Low: 30478.25 | R2: 30969.25 | R1: 30801.25 | Pivot: 30639.75 | S1: 30471.75 | S2: 30310.25 | Weekly Pivot: 30401.25 | TPI: 0.57 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($5.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Market remains range-bound with no confirmed directional edge.

Range: 30471.75 to 30801.25

Upside Break: Above 30801.25 targets 30969.25

Downside Break: Below 30471.75 targets 30310.25

MARGIN: Initial: ~$43,591 | Maintenance: ~$38,795 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($5.00)

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E-Mini Dow (YMM26) | TPI: 0.27 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 50306

DESK NOTE: The Dow took the worst of it, nearly six hundred points lower and slammed onto the low. Blue chips led the fade.

TECH: Close: 50803 | High: 51418 | Low: 50738 | R2: 51666 | R1: 51235 | Pivot: 50986 | S1: 50555 | S2: 50306 | Weekly Pivot: 50877 | TPI: 0.27 | Min Fluc: 1 ($5.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (50877), sellers remain in control.

Entry: Sell at 50986 or below 50555.

Stop: Above 51235

Primary Target: 50555

Extended Target: 50306

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 51235 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: ~$19,157 | Maintenance: ~$17,049 | Min Fluc: 1 ($5.00)

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E-Mini Russell 2000 (RTYM26) | TPI: 0.25 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 2855.4

DESK NOTE: Small caps sold off and closed near the low, surrendering last week's bid in a hurry.

TECH: Close: 2895.4 | High: 2938.0 | Low: 2886.7 | R2: 2958.0 | R1: 2926.7 | Pivot: 2906.7 | S1: 2875.4 | S2: 2855.4 | Weekly Pivot: 2908.8 | TPI: 0.25 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($5.00)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below the Weekly Pivot (2908.8), sellers remain in control.

Entry: Sell at 2906.7 or below 2875.4.

Stop: Above 2926.7

Primary Target: 2875.4

Extended Target: 2855.4

Trail: Move risk to Pivot after Primary Target

Invalidation: Settlement above 2926.7 negates the bearish setup.

MARGIN: Initial: ~$13,570 | Maintenance: ~$12,077 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($5.00)

──────────────────────────────────────────────────

E-Mini S&P 500 (EPM26) | TPI: 0.43 | Bias: NEUTRAL

DESK NOTE: The S&P slid with the group but clawed back to the lower-middle by the close — fifty-two points lighter, holding just enough to stay neutral.

TECH: Close: 7571.75 | High: 7628.50 | Low: 7541.75 | R2: 7667.50 | R1: 7619.50 | Pivot: 7580.75 | S1: 7532.75 | S2: 7494.00 | Weekly Pivot: 7570.00 | TPI: 0.43 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Market remains range-bound with no confirmed directional edge.

Range: 7532.75 to 7619.50

Upside Break: Above 7619.50 targets 7667.50

Downside Break: Below 7532.75 targets 7494.00

MARGIN: Initial: ~$31,183 | Maintenance: ~$27,752 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)

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CRYPTO

══════════════════════════════════════════════════

Micro Bitcoin (MBTM26) | TPI: 0.54 | Bias: NEUTRAL

DESK NOTE: Bitcoin spent the whole session under the prior mark — better than two thousand points lower and never near it — but firmed off the low to close the upper half. Heavy by the week, steadier into the bell.

TECH: Close: 65625 | High: 65710 | Low: 65205 | R2: 66020 | R1: 65820 | Pivot: 65515 | S1: 65315 | S2: 65010 | Weekly Pivot: 68640 | TPI: 0.54 | Min Fluc: 5 ($0.50)

TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Market remains range-bound with no confirmed directional edge.

Range: 65315 to 65820

Upside Break: Above 65820 targets 66020

Downside Break: Below 65315 targets 65010

MARGIN: Initial: ~$2,761 | Maintenance: ~$2,457 | Min Fluc: 5 ($0.50)

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The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of RJO Futures, a StoneX Company. This analysis represents the author's independent research and technical methodology.

Trade smart. Trade informed. Trade with MCI.

This material was prepared using CQG data feed.

  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Base Metals
  • Precious Metals
  • Equities
  • Energy
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Currencies

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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