Wednesday, June 10, 2026 — Prepared using June 9 settlement data.
TODAY'S MARKET MOVERS (All Times CT)
|
Time (CT)
|
Event
|
Consensus
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
Affected
|
|
07:30 AM
|
US: CPI
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
|
HIGH
|
Broad
|
|
09:30 AM
|
US: EIA Petroleum Status Report
|
-
|
-
|
HIGH
|
Energy
|
Source: CMEGroup.com
HOW TO USE THIS REPORT
This report provides daily market commentary. The Trend Probability Index (TPI) combines intraday range positioning with multi-timeframe pivot analysis to measure market structure. Unlike lagging indicators, MCI analyzes previous day's conviction to project the next session's probable trade setups. Each section presents the directional bias and key technical reference levels — pivot, support/resistance, and invalidation. Bias remains intact until settlement breaches the invalidation level. The framework is intended to inform your own analysis, not to replace it — apply independent judgment and risk management before any trading decision.
While others rely on lagging indicators, MCI measures directional bias through intraday range positioning and multi-timeframe technical structure. Trade smart. Trade informed. Trade with MCI.
All levels are technical reference points, not individualized trade recommendations. Data reflects exchange settlement data as of June 9, 2026, 4:00 PM CT (source: CQG). Contract symbols reflect CQG/StoneX platform symbology. Confirm contract symbols, market data, and margin requirements with your trading platform and FCM before use.
MARGIN ESTIMATES: Margin and risk figures shown per contract are estimates based on exchange-published SPAN parameters and are subject to change without notice. Actual margin requirements are set by the exchanges and your FCM; always confirm with your broker before placing trades.
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MACRO
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Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERM26) | TPI: 0.31 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 129.12
DESK NOTE: The broad gauge bled another 1.82 to fresh lows for the move, energy and metals doing the damage while the dollar sat firm — and with CPI due at 7:30, the whole complex is priced for a number that decides whether this is a flush or a trend.
TECH: Close: 130.97 | High: 132.33 | Low: 130.26 | R2: 133.26 | R1: 132.11 | Pivot: 131.19 | S1: 130.04 | S2: 129.12 | Weekly Pivot: 132.91 | TPI: 0.31 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($1.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Acceptance below 132.91 keeps sellers in command, with the weekly line still capping the tape.
Bearish setup reference: 131.19 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 130.04.
Initial downside objective: 130.04; extended objective: 129.12.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 132.11 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 0.92 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: ~$932 | Maintenance: ~$829 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($1.00)
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GRAINS & OILSEEDS
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Corn (ZCEN26) | TPI: 0.31 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 412.75
DESK NOTE: Corn poked through 425 early and gave it all back, three quarters of a cent better but parked in the bottom quarter of the range — short-covering that found no demand follow-through, the kind of fade that keeps fund shorts comfortable.
TECH: Close: 419.50 | High: 425.50 | Low: 417.50 | R2: 428.75 | R1: 424.25 | Pivot: 420.75 | S1: 416.25 | S2: 412.75 | Weekly Pivot: 424.75 | TPI: 0.31 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Structure stays heavy below 424.75; bears keep the daily edge beneath 424.25.
Bearish setup reference: 420.75 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 416.25.
Initial downside objective: 416.25; extended objective: 412.75.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 424.25 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 3.50 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $1,210 | Maintenance: $1,100 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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Soybeans (ZSEN26) | TPI: 0.34 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 1106.00
DESK NOTE: Beans slipped 2 cents and stayed pinned near the lows, the product side offering no help as meal keeps dragging on the crush — export tone quiet and nothing on the docket to force shorts out.
TECH: Close: 1113.75 | High: 1118.50 | Low: 1110.25 | R2: 1122.50 | R1: 1118.00 | Pivot: 1114.25 | S1: 1109.75 | S2: 1106.00 | Weekly Pivot: 1132.25 | TPI: 0.34 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below 1132.25 on the weekly read, the path of least resistance stays lower.
Bearish setup reference: 1114.25 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 1109.75.
Initial downside objective: 1109.75; extended objective: 1106.00.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 1118.00 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 3.75 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,420 | Maintenance: $2,200 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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Soybean Oil (ZLEN26) | TPI: 0.45 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: Bean oil firmed 35 points and held the middle of the range, oil share quietly grinding higher against a meal leg that can't catch a bid — the renewable-diesel pull is the one corner of the complex still working.
TECH: Close: 74.91 | High: 75.84 | Low: 73.97 | R2: 76.78 | R1: 75.84 | Pivot: 74.91 | S1: 73.97 | S2: 73.04 | Weekly Pivot: 75.77 | TPI: 0.45 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($6.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Balanced tape; the range holds with no confirmed edge.
Range: 73.97 to 75.84
Upside Break: Above 75.84 targets 76.78
Downside Break: Below 73.97 targets 73.04
MARGIN: Initial: $2,310 | Maintenance: $2,100 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($6.00)
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Soybean Meal (ZMEN26) | TPI: 0.14 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 296.9
DESK NOTE: Meal sank another $1.60 to fresh move lows and settled on the floor, the long-oil-short-meal crush trade still feeding on it; washed out this far the squeeze risk grows daily, but the tape hasn't blinked yet.
TECH: Close: 301.1 | High: 307.0 | Low: 300.9 | R2: 309.1 | R1: 305.1 | Pivot: 303.0 | S1: 299.0 | S2: 296.9 | Weekly Pivot: 310.1 | TPI: 0.14 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Rallies stay suspect beneath 310.1, with 305.1 the daily level that formally voids the short structure. Extended read — TPI 0.14 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.
Bearish setup reference: 303.0 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 299.0.
Initial downside objective: 299.0; extended objective: 296.9.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 305.1 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 2.1 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $1,705 | Maintenance: $1,550 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)
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Chicago Wheat (ZWAN26) | TPI: 0.34 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 574.00
DESK NOTE: Chicago wheat ran to 595 in the morning and got sold all the way back, two cents better on the day but a failed rally in character — no export story showed up to pay for the early enthusiasm.
TECH: Close: 585.25 | High: 595.00 | Low: 581.75 | R2: 600.50 | R1: 593.00 | Pivot: 587.25 | S1: 579.75 | S2: 574.00 | Weekly Pivot: 589.00 | TPI: 0.34 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Weekly resistance intact at 589.00; sellers keep the daily edge below 593.00.
Bearish setup reference: 587.25 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 579.75.
Initial downside objective: 579.75; extended objective: 574.00.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 593.00 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 5.75 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,145 | Maintenance: $1,950 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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KC HRW Wheat (KWEN26) | TPI: 0.40 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: KC tagged 643'6 and bled back to settle barely a penny higher, the pop in HRW finding no fresh demand underneath — back inside the range and back to a neutral grade after Monday's flicker of leadership.
TECH: Close: 630.75 | High: 643.75 | Low: 626.00 | R2: 651.25 | R1: 641.00 | Pivot: 633.50 | S1: 623.25 | S2: 615.75 | Weekly Pivot: 629.50 | TPI: 0.40 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: No directional edge until the range breaks.
Range: 623.25 to 641.00
Upside Break: Above 641.00 targets 651.25
Downside Break: Below 623.25 targets 615.75
MARGIN: Initial: $2,200 | Maintenance: $2,000 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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LIVESTOCK
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Feeder Cattle (GFQ26) | TPI: 0.75 | Bias: BULLISH | Obj: 358.775
DESK NOTE: Feeders ripped 3.45 higher and parked near the top of the range, cheap feed doing half the lifting — the corner of the board that never joined the macro liquidation just flipped to its lone bullish grade alongside live cattle.
TECH: Close: 354.150 | High: 355.075 | Low: 349.050 | R2: 358.775 | R1: 356.475 | Pivot: 352.750 | S1: 350.450 | S2: 346.725 | Weekly Pivot: 349.625 | TPI: 0.75 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Above support, buyers retain control.
Bullish setup reference: 352.750 pivot support or upside continuation above 356.475.
Initial upside objective: 356.475; extended objective: 358.775.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle below 350.450 voids the long structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 2.300 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $5,830 | Maintenance: $5,300 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($12.50)
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Live Cattle (GLEQ26) | TPI: 0.72 | Bias: BULLISH | Obj: 243.125
DESK NOTE: Live cattle surged 2.97 and settled within a quarter of the session high, carried back above the weekly line with cash and boxed-beef tone now the bulls' confirmation to watch — the complex has shrugged off every macro flush this month, and both cattle contracts flipped bullish on the day.
TECH: Close: 239.700 | High: 240.000 | Low: 235.150 | R2: 243.125 | R1: 241.425 | Pivot: 238.275 | S1: 236.575 | S2: 233.425 | Weekly Pivot: 239.625 | TPI: 0.72 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Holding above support keeps the bid in front.
Bullish setup reference: 238.275 pivot support or upside continuation above 241.425.
Initial upside objective: 241.425; extended objective: 243.125.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle below 236.575 voids the long structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 1.700 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $3,300 | Maintenance: $3,000 | Min Fluc: 0.025 ($10.00)
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SOFTS
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Sugar #11 (SBEV26) | TPI: 0.35 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 14.29
DESK NOTE: Sugar slipped nine ticks to 14.52 and keeps grinding the floor of its range, offers capping every lift — pressed this low for this long, the short-covering pop remains the risk nobody wants to pay for early.
TECH: Close: 14.52 | High: 14.67 | Low: 14.42 | R2: 14.79 | R1: 14.65 | Pivot: 14.54 | S1: 14.40 | S2: 14.29 | Weekly Pivot: 14.69 | TPI: 0.35 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($11.20)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The weekly read stays negative below 14.69, leaving rallies suspect unless resistance is reclaimed.
Bearish setup reference: 14.54 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 14.40.
Initial downside objective: 14.40; extended objective: 14.29.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 14.65 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 0.11 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $875 | Maintenance: $795 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($11.20)
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Coffee (KCEU26) | TPI: 0.33 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 235.65
DESK NOTE: Coffee gave back 0.75 and sat in the lower third, the bounce attempts getting shorter and the offer returning quicker — origin flow and certified stocks hold the leverage here, and the tape trades like it knows it.
TECH: Close: 240.90 | High: 244.65 | Low: 238.85 | R2: 247.25 | R1: 244.10 | Pivot: 241.45 | S1: 238.30 | S2: 235.65 | Weekly Pivot: 245.10 | TPI: 0.33 | Min Fluc: 0.05 ($18.75)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: No reclaim of 245.10; the bounce stays corrective while downside structure holds.
Bearish setup reference: 241.45 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 238.30.
Initial downside objective: 238.30; extended objective: 235.65.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 244.10 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 2.65 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $6,827 | Maintenance: $6,206 | Min Fluc: 0.05 ($18.75)
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Cocoa (CCEU26) | TPI: 0.36 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 3745
DESK NOTE: Cocoa chopped a $184 session and settled $4 higher in the lower half, two-sided trade with no resolution — West African origin remains the swing factor, and until fresh news lands this market is content to churn.
TECH: Close: 3910 | High: 4031 | Low: 3847 | R2: 4113 | R1: 4012 | Pivot: 3929 | S1: 3828 | S2: 3745 | Weekly Pivot: 3970 | TPI: 0.36 | Min Fluc: 1 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The offer stays in front while 3970 caps the tape, keeping the recovery attempt corrective.
Bearish setup reference: 3929 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 3828.
Initial downside objective: 3828; extended objective: 3745.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 4012 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 83 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $6,380 | Maintenance: $5,800 | Min Fluc: 1 ($10.00)
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Cotton (CTEZ26) | TPI: 0.13 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 73.53
DESK NOTE: Cotton broke down 2.31 cents and settled a nickel off the dead low, the midweek shelf giving way entirely — with mill demand quiet there was nobody standing under it when the sell programs leaned in.
TECH: Close: 75.30 | High: 77.85 | Low: 75.25 | R2: 78.73 | R1: 77.02 | Pivot: 76.13 | S1: 74.42 | S2: 73.53 | Weekly Pivot: 77.21 | TPI: 0.13 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($5.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Bears keep the daily edge below 77.02, with 77.21 the weekly line bulls need to reclaim. Extended read — TPI 0.13 stretched into the lows; downside targets largely spent and snapback/reversal risk is elevated. Caution warranted.
Bearish setup reference: 76.13 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 74.42.
Initial downside objective: 74.42; extended objective: 73.53.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 77.02 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 0.89 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,343 | Maintenance: $2,130 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($5.00)
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METALS
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Gold (Q) (GCEQ26) | TPI: 0.24 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 4182.9
DESK NOTE: Gold got hit for $77 and couldn't even lean on a firm bond market, the fresh exchange margin hike shaking loose crowded length ahead of a CPI print the street already expects hot — 0.6% consensus is a high bar, and the metal is de-risking into it.
TECH: Close: 4286.4 | High: 4388.6 | Low: 4259.9 | R2: 4440.3 | R1: 4363.4 | Pivot: 4311.6 | S1: 4234.7 | S2: 4182.9 | Weekly Pivot: 4363.2 | TPI: 0.24 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The weekly read stays heavy beneath 4363.2, rallies corrective until it reclaims.
Bearish setup reference: 4311.6 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 4234.7.
Initial downside objective: 4234.7; extended objective: 4182.9.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 4363.4 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 51.8 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $23,848 | Maintenance: $21,680 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($10.00)
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Silver (SIEN26) | TPI: 0.22 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 61.575
DESK NOTE: Silver took the worst of it, $3.35 lower and settled in the bottom fifth of the range as the same margin increase that hit gold landed harder on a thinner market — this is positioning being carried out, not a demand story.
TECH: Close: 65.240 | High: 69.180 | Low: 64.460 | R2: 71.015 | R1: 68.125 | Pivot: 66.295 | S1: 63.405 | S2: 61.575 | Weekly Pivot: 68.440 | TPI: 0.22 | Min Fluc: 0.005 ($25.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Beneath 68.440 on the weekly read, bears keep the daily edge below 68.125.
Bearish setup reference: 66.295 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 63.405.
Initial downside objective: 63.405; extended objective: 61.575.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 68.125 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 1.830 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $37,631 | Maintenance: $34,210 | Min Fluc: 0.005 ($25.00)
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Copper (CPEN26) | TPI: 0.27 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 6.1750
DESK NOTE: Copper traded a wide 18-cent session and settled soft in the lower third, the early lift sold into — with LME inventories and Chinese demand offering no counterweight yet, the metal can't sustain a bid while the macro tape de-risks in front of CPI.
TECH: Close: 6.3220 | High: 6.4655 | Low: 6.2835 | R2: 6.5390 | R1: 6.4305 | Pivot: 6.3570 | S1: 6.2485 | S2: 6.1750 | Weekly Pivot: 6.4130 | TPI: 0.27 | Min Fluc: 0.0005 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Weekly structure caps at 6.4130 while the daily edge holds below 6.4305.
Bearish setup reference: 6.3570 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 6.2485.
Initial downside objective: 6.2485; extended objective: 6.1750.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 6.4305 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 0.0735 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $13,200 | Maintenance: $12,000 | Min Fluc: 0.0005 ($12.50)
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ENERGY
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Crude Oil (CLEN26) | TPI: 0.37 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 82.97
DESK NOTE: Crude sank $3.10 and settled in the lower half of a $5.60 range, the liquidation tone back after Monday's pause — the EIA petroleum status report lands at 9:30, and after a slide this steep the inventory number will get traded with both hands.
TECH: Close: 88.20 | High: 91.55 | Low: 85.95 | R2: 94.17 | R1: 91.18 | Pivot: 88.57 | S1: 85.58 | S2: 82.97 | Weekly Pivot: 90.38 | TPI: 0.37 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Acceptance below 90.38 keeps sellers in command, with the weekly line still capping the tape.
Bearish setup reference: 88.57 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 85.58.
Initial downside objective: 85.58; extended objective: 82.97.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 91.18 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 2.61 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: ~$12,294 | Maintenance: ~$10,941 | Min Fluc: 0.01 ($10.00)
Mini equivalent: E-Mini Crude (QMEN26) — same levels apply, half size. Margin: ~$6,147 init / ~$5,470 maint.
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Natural Gas (NGEN26) | TPI: 0.29 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 3.065
DESK NOTE: Natural gas eased less than a penny and held the bottom of its recent coil, quiet while crude bled — storage-season math still rules this tape, and it isn't in a hurry.
TECH: Close: 3.140 | High: 3.207 | Low: 3.117 | R2: 3.245 | R1: 3.192 | Pivot: 3.155 | S1: 3.102 | S2: 3.065 | Weekly Pivot: 3.204 | TPI: 0.29 | Min Fluc: 0.001 ($10.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Structure stays heavy below 3.204; bears keep the daily edge beneath 3.192.
Bearish setup reference: 3.155 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 3.102.
Initial downside objective: 3.102; extended objective: 3.065.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 3.192 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 0.037 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: ~$6,052 | Maintenance: ~$5,386 | Min Fluc: 0.001 ($10.00)
Mini equivalent: E-Mini Natural Gas (QGEN26) — same levels apply, quarter size. Margin: ~$1,513 init / ~$1,346 maint.
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CURRENCIES
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Euro FX (EU6M26) | TPI: 0.43 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: Euro firmed 21 pips and held the upper half, the dollar hesitant in front of CPI — a hot print at 0.6% hands the greenback its bid back overnight, and the single currency knows it's trading on borrowed time until 7:30.
TECH: Close: 1.15530 | High: 1.15815 | Low: 1.15300 | R2: 1.16065 | R1: 1.15795 | Pivot: 1.15550 | S1: 1.15280 | S2: 1.15035 | Weekly Pivot: 1.15690 | TPI: 0.43 | Min Fluc: 0.00005 ($6.25)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Buyers and sellers are still trading the bracket, not the trend.
Range: 1.15280 to 1.15795
Upside Break: Above 1.15795 targets 1.16065
Downside Break: Below 1.15280 targets 1.15035
MARGIN: Initial: $2,640 | Maintenance: $2,400 | Min Fluc: 0.00005 ($6.25)
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Japanese Yen (JY6M26) | TPI: 0.27 | Bias: BEARISH | Obj: 0.0062255
DESK NOTE: Yen slipped fractionally and stayed pinned in its drift lower, the carry trade still leaning on it — only a CPI surprise that moves the Fed path is likely to shake this tape out of its channel.
TECH: Close: 0.0062390 | High: 0.0062510 | Low: 0.0062350 | R2: 0.0062575 | R1: 0.0062485 | Pivot: 0.0062415 | S1: 0.0062325 | S2: 0.0062255 | Weekly Pivot: 0.0062515 | TPI: 0.27 | Min Fluc: 0.0000005 ($6.25)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Below 0.0062515 on the weekly read, the path of least resistance stays lower.
Bearish setup reference: 0.0062415 pivot resistance or downside continuation below 0.0062325.
Initial downside objective: 0.0062325; extended objective: 0.0062255.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle above 0.0062485 voids the short structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 0.0000070 from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,860 | Maintenance: $2,600 | Min Fluc: 0.0000005 ($6.25)
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INDICES
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E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (ENQM26) | TPI: 0.48 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: Nasdaq got flushed nearly 1,200 points to the morning low and clawed most of it back, settling 337 lower but mid-range — a violent pre-CPI shakeout that found real buyers underneath, the bond bid doing the afternoon's heavy lifting.
TECH: Close: 29117.00 | High: 29848.25 | Low: 28227.75 | R2: 30684.75 | R1: 29901.00 | Pivot: 29064.25 | S1: 28280.50 | S2: 27443.75 | Weekly Pivot: 29384.25 | TPI: 0.48 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($5.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: The market stays rotational; confirmation needed outside 28280.50–29901.00.
Range: 28280.50 to 29901.00
Upside Break: Above 29901.00 targets 30684.75
Downside Break: Below 28280.50 targets 27443.75
MARGIN: Initial: ~$43,780 | Maintenance: ~$38,964 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($5.00)
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E-Mini Dow (YMM26) | TPI: 0.53 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: The Dow rode the same flush-and-recover tape to a 53-point gain, blue chips first back to green as yields backed off — the index group's read into CPI is a market braced for the number, not running from it.
TECH: Close: 50909 | High: 51315 | Low: 50262 | R2: 51882 | R1: 51395 | Pivot: 50829 | S1: 50342 | S2: 49776 | Weekly Pivot: 51007 | TPI: 0.53 | Min Fluc: 1 ($5.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Two-sided trade remains intact inside 50342–51395.
Range: 50342 to 51395
Upside Break: Above 51395 targets 51882
Downside Break: Below 50342 targets 49776
MARGIN: Initial: ~$19,058 | Maintenance: ~$16,961 | Min Fluc: 1 ($5.00)
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E-Mini Russell 2000 (RTYM26) | TPI: 0.53 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: Small caps recovered to close 8.8 higher after the morning purge, the rate-sensitive corner getting the most direct help from the bond rally — the Russell holds its neutral grade sitting right at its weekly line.
TECH: Close: 2868.3 | High: 2926.6 | Low: 2793.7 | R2: 2995.8 | R1: 2932.0 | Pivot: 2862.9 | S1: 2799.1 | S2: 2730.0 | Weekly Pivot: 2870.1 | TPI: 0.53 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($5.00)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Balanced tape; the range holds with no confirmed edge.
Range: 2799.1 to 2932.0
Upside Break: Above 2932.0 targets 2995.8
Downside Break: Below 2799.1 targets 2730.0
MARGIN: Initial: ~$13,732 | Maintenance: ~$12,221 | Min Fluc: 0.1 ($5.00)
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E-Mini S&P 500 (EPM26) | TPI: 0.52 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: The S&P traveled a 244-point session and settled 23 lower in the upper half of it, the early washout bought back hard — the tape did its de-risking in the morning and spent the afternoon repositioning for CPI.
TECH: Close: 7392.75 | High: 7491.00 | Low: 7247.25 | R2: 7620.75 | R1: 7506.75 | Pivot: 7377.00 | S1: 7263.00 | S2: 7133.25 | Weekly Pivot: 7422.75 | TPI: 0.52 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: No directional edge until the range breaks.
Range: 7263.00 to 7506.75
Upside Break: Above 7506.75 targets 7620.75
Downside Break: Below 7263.00 targets 7133.25
MARGIN: Initial: ~$31,150 | Maintenance: ~$27,723 | Min Fluc: 0.25 ($12.50)
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RATES
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10-Year T-Note (TYAU26) | TPI: 0.66 | Bias: BULLISH | Obj: 109-17'5
DESK NOTE: The ten-year caught a genuine bid, 6 ticks better and settled two ticks off the high as the long end leans toward the flight-to-quality side of CPI — with consensus already at a hot 0.6%, the bond market is positioned for the miss, not the beat.
TECH: Close: 109-07'0 | High: 109-09'0 | Low: 108-27'5 | R2: 109-17'5 | R1: 109-12'0 | Pivot: 109-04'0 | S1: 108-30'5 | S2: 108-22'5 | Weekly Pivot: 109-08'5 | TPI: 0.66 | Min Fluc: 0.015625 ($15.625)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Support underpinning; buyers setting the pace. A settle through 109-08'5 is still needed to reclaim weekly structure.
Bullish setup reference: 109-04'0 pivot support or upside continuation above 109-12'0.
Initial upside objective: 109-12'0; extended objective: 109-17'5.
Trail reference: pivot becomes the risk reference once the initial objective trades.
Invalidation: a daily settle below 108-30'5 voids the long structure; risk should be managed ahead of that line, 5.5/32nds from pivot.
MARGIN: Initial: $2,063 | Maintenance: $1,875 | Min Fluc: 0.015625 ($15.625)
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CRYPTO
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Micro Bitcoin (MBTM26) | TPI: 0.42 | Bias: NEUTRAL
DESK NOTE: Bitcoin marked 62,165 at the bell, 1,840 below Monday's 4 PM print on a narrow snap window — the cascade has slowed but no real bid has shown, and with spot and ETF flows the only fuel that matters here, a hot CPI is exactly the macro shove this tape doesn't need.
TECH: Close: 62165 | High: 62270 | Low: 62085 | R2: 62360 | R1: 62260 | Pivot: 62175 | S1: 62075 | S2: 61990 | Weekly Pivot: 62750 | TPI: 0.42 | Min Fluc: 5 ($0.50)
TECHNICAL STRUCTURE: Buyers and sellers are still trading the bracket, not the trend.
Range: 62075 to 62260
Upside Break: Above 62260 targets 62360
Downside Break: Below 62075 targets 61990
MARGIN: Initial: ~$2,585 | Maintenance: ~$2,300 | Min Fluc: 5 ($0.50)
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Trade smart. Trade informed. Trade with MCI.
Eli Tesfaye
StoneX®
1-800-367-7290 | 312-373-5394
eli.tesfaye@StoneX.com
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The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of RJO Futures, a StoneX Company. This analysis represents the author's independent research and technical methodology.
Trade smart. Trade informed. Trade with MCI.
This material was prepared using CQG data feed.
