Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 13

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Mon, 13 Apr 2026, 16:47

Today's Perspective Video: Iran Blockade Escalates: What It Means for Oil, Fertilizer & Grain Markets

April 13 – Markets appear to be in wait-and-see mode as we await fresh headlines regarding the situation in the Middle East, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq in the green but the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both trading lower. The VIX has fallen notably from its highs near 21.6 earlier in the session but remains up roughly 2.6% on the day as it trades just below the 19.8 level at the time of writing. The dollar is well off its morning highs too, now trading effectively unchanged on the day right at the 98.7 level. Treasuries are quietly below unchanged as well, with 10-year yields trading at 4.31% and 2-year yields trading at 3.79%. Crude oil remains sensitive to headlines, but has fallen notably through the session following reports of more planned peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, with nearby WTI breaking just below the pivotal $100/barrel level at the time of writing, still up roughly 4% on the day, though Brent futures remain up over 6% on the day as they hover near the $101/barrel mark. The ags are largely mixed, with the wheat complex posting impressive double-digit gains, while soybeans sell off.

USDA inspected 70.2 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending 4/9, coming in toward the top-end of the estimated range as demand for U.S. corn exports remains red hot. Cumulative corn export inspections in the ‘25/’26 marketing year total 1.977 billion bushels, up 33.9% year-on-year and easily representing an all-time high for this point in the year, keeping us comfortably ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s record 3.300-billion-bushel export target. Weekly soybean inspections came in at 29.9 million bushels, in line with analyst expectations and marking a three-week high. Cumulative soybean inspections remain a bit ugly, however, with the 1.158-billion-bushel total representing a decline of 25.2% year-over-year and marking the weakest pace at this time in seven years, leading USDA to cut their ‘25/’26 U.S. soybean export target by 35 million bushels to now sit at 1.540 billion on last week’s April WASDE. Weekly all wheat export inspections were relatively soft at 11.8 million bushels, coming in toward the low-end of expectations and marking a three-month low. For what it’s worth, this is also part of the typical seasonal slowdown as we approach the end of the ‘25/’26 marketing year for wheat at the end of next month; cumulative wheat inspections of 772.6 million bushels remain up 14.6% year-over-year and at a five-year high.

Ukraine reported another attack on a Russian fertilizer plant today, this time on PhosAgro’s Cherepovets complex. The extent of the damage is still unclear at this time, but videos of large fires emerging from the complex are circulating on social media. Obviously, the ongoing disruption to fertilizer production and shipping out of the Middle East has brought an unprecedented amount of focus to the sector given the region’s importance to global supply. With these traditional major nitrogen and phosphate suppliers largely cut off from the global market, the importance of supply from those not exposed to the Strait grows. Russia is one of the main origins fitting that bill.

The rationale behind these Ukrainian attacks is to target Russia’s ability to produce explosives and precursors, namely ammonium nitrate and nitric acid which are produced in the same facilities as their finished fertilizers, to hamper their war effort. The complex they struck today does produce these products, but their main output is on the phosphate side. That’s where the problem lies. Global phosphate supply is extremely consolidated, with only four major players accounting for the vast majority of the world’s exports (China, Morocco, Russia, and Saudi Arabia). China has already restricted exports, Moroccan production has been dramatically cut back for the second quarter due to disruptions in their ability to import feedstocks because of the Strait closure, Saudi Arabia is directly cut off by that closure… Now you can see why Russian production feels so important at this moment. Again, we don’t know the extent of the damage at this time, and it may be minimal, allowing us to move past this event. However, if this results in a serious production slowdown, the global phosphate market goes from bad to worse.

Existing home sales in the U.S. fell by 3.6% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 3.98 million in March, below market expectations of 4.06 million and marking the weakest month of sales seen since June of last year. February was revised slightly higher, moving from the 4.09 million originally reported up to 4.13 million to provide somewhat of a silver lining. Regardless, the U.S. just wrapped up the first quarter with its weakest average monthly existing home sales since 2009, the height of the housing market crash. However, the median sales price rose by 2.7% month-on-month to $408,800, the highest since November. This disconnect reflects the difference seen in the 2020’s slowdown relative to that of the late 2000’s, as highlighted in the graphic below. Despite the weak sales in the first quarter of 2026, the average median sales price seen during the span rose to $406,000, up 0.7% year-over-year and easily representing an all-time high for the period.

Grains & Oilseeds

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