Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 15 Apr 2025, 16:37

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 15 - Stocks moved modestly higher at midday, as traders hope / anticipate more tariff carve-outs, or perhaps a trade agreement with one of the 130 countries said to be negotiating lower tariff rates currently. The VIX is trading near 29 at this hour, while the dollar index is trading near 100.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.33%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.83%. Crude oil and grain prices are modestly weaker.

Soybean prices are pulling back from yesterday's six-week highs on fears that Argentine soybeans, meal & oil will soon be hitting the market. Argentina announced a plan over the weekend to incentivize farmer selling and exports of soybeans and their products that included devaluing the peso, along with a reduction of the export taxes into June for the products. President Milei hopes that this incentive program will increase the exports of soybeans and its products over the next 60 days or so to increase the flow of dollars into the country to help it meet its obligations. Farmer selling is thus far said to be slow as producers wait to see how far the peso falls first, but sales may increase as harvest momentum increases over the next several weeks.

Traders are also anticipating that we will soon get definitive direction on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It's been widely reported that a group representing the Ag, Biofuel, and Crude Oil industries recommended that the EPA set the biomass diesel output mandate at 5.25 billion gallons. We think it will be closer to 4.25 billion gallons, possibly as high as 4.5 billion gallons. That would still be a substantial jump from the current mandate of 3.35 billion gallons. The question is timing. We're expecting an announcement by Memorial Day, but we'll see. The next question will revolve around the tax credit incentive program to make that happen. What deviations might we see from the 45Z credit program outlined in the so-called "Inflation Reduction Act?"

The National Oilseed Processors Association reports that its members crushed 194.551 million bushels of soybeans in March, up from 177.870 million the previous month, but down from 196.406 million bushels in March of last year. Soybean crush continues to be slowed by the lack of soyoil demand amid slower biomass diesel production as indicated above. The increase from February to March was largely due to more days of activity in the month, with February only having 28 days. USDA raised its soybean crush estimate by 10 million bushels last week, but marketing year to date soybean crush now falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit that new target by 10 million bushels. That deficit will likely continue to grow until / unless we see a strong positive announcement from the EPA to support biomass diesel production, as the entrance of new crop soyoil from Argentina onto the global market is expected to dramatically reduce our ability to export surplus U.S. supplies starting later next month.

Wheat prices were again under modest pressure today as traders anticipate the opportunity for timely beneficial rains across many dry areas of the Central and Southern Plains toward the end of this week. Those rains will be critical to avoid yield loss as the hard red winter wheat crop moves into the critical reproductive phase. Receipt of the rains would be expected to maintain relatively normal yield expectations, so that will be the focus when traders return on Sunday night into Monday when they check rainfall totals, as well as the opportunity for follow up rains. The markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.

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