Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 16:58

Today's Perspective Video: Is the Iran War Over? Why Risks for Commodities Linger

April 20 - Stocks pulled back modestly at midday amid reports that Iran thus far refuses to participate in peace talks as long as the United States continues to block its ports, costing it an estimated $500 million per day in lost revenue. Yet, the VIX continues to trade near 19, reflecting relatively low levels of anxiety on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 98.0 at midday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.26%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.72%. Crude oil prices are near $89 per barrel. Wheat prices are posting strong gains on weekend freeze fears, supporting good strength in corn prices when combined with the global fertilizer shortage due to the war. Soybean prices are posting modest gains, led by new-crop, on the strong biofuel program.

USDA inspected 65.7 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending April 16, as shown below, along with 27.5 million bushels of soybeans, 19.0 million bushels of wheat, and 8 million bushels of grain sorghum. These are all decent totals for this time of year, although they still fell short of the pace needed to maintain the pace for hitting USDA's targets for their respective marketing years. For example, the weekly wheat shipment total mentioned above was an eight week high, but not high enough to sustain the pace. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections still exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 40 million bushels, but that is down from exceeding it by 44 million bushels the previous week. Nonetheless, the wheat marketing year ends at the end of next month, so we'll still likely exceed the target unless shipments totally fall apart in the weeks ahead. Grain sorghum inspections for the marketing year to date fall short of the seasonal pace by 14 million bushels, and that deficit continues to slowly shrink. China continues to be the primary taker of U.S. grain sorghum shipments.

Marketing year to date corn export inspections total 2.036 billion bushels - a record for mid-April. That total is up 491 million bushels or 32% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 266 million bushels, but that is down from exceeding it by 288 million bushels a week ago. This year's shipment pace is similar to last year's currently, but this year's export target is nearly a half billion bushels higher than last year's final shipments. Nonetheless, another modest increase in the export target is still possible for the current year.

Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.182 billion bushels, which is a seven year low for mid-April despite the fact that weekly shipments have exceeded the previous year's weekly pace all but three times over the past 13 weeks due to the slow start to the marketing year. As a result, this year's total to date falls short of the previous year's pace by 387 million bushels or 25%. The total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 43 million bushels, down from a shortfall of 53 million bushels the previous week. The soybeans inspected for export shipment in the week ending April 16 included 16.4 million bushels destined for China, bringing marketing year to date soybean shipments to China to 384.3 million bushels. Chinese purchases for the current year total 439.7 million bushels, in keeping with the October 30 handshake agreement between Xi and Trump. That means that shipments match up well with the freight line up we have seen for those purchased soybeans, with the remaining 55 million bushels to be shipped over a period spreading over the next three months. As such, we'll likely see the weekly inspection pace slow going forward, leaving us 25 to 30 million bushels short of USDA's target for all destinations. However, the crush target needs to be increased by at least that much, offsetting the change.

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Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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