Bevan Everett Grain Recap Chinese Report 061026
Bevan Everett Grain Recap Chinese Translation
Grains Team Asia - Bevan Everett Chinese Translation
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 23
By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
April 23 – Stocks are quietly lower at midday, though the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain near their fresh all-time highs, while the VIX is hanging near the low-end of its range today as it hovers around 19.1 at the time of writing. The dollar is having a quiet day as well, holding just above unchanged as it trades above the 98.66 level. Sticking with that theme, treasuries are holding just above unchanged as well, with 10-year yields trading just below 4.30% and 2-year yields trading just above 3.80%. Crude oil is moving higher again today amid ongoing back-and-forth headlines in the Middle East, as well as stronger than expected U.S. economic data released this morning that we’ll dive into in more depth below; nearby WTI and Brent are both up ~1.8% at the time of writing to trade near $94.50 and $103.80, respectively. The ags are mixed at midday, but the shining star is KC Wheat, surging higher amid ongoing weather risks for the already struggling U.S. hard wheat crop on the Plains. The hardest hit areas in terms of dryness do see some rain in the forecast over the next two weeks, but the bigger focus is the sharp push of below-freezing temperatures returning not just this weekend but also repeated overnight lows below freezing for much of next week.
The U.S. manufacturing sector showed shocking strength in this morning’s April Flash PMI release from S&P Global. The Manufacturing PMI jumped to 54.0 in April, up from 52.3 in March, well above the expected rise to 52.5, and marking the strongest reading for the index since May 2022. The strength was broad-based, with new orders also increasing at their fastest pace since May 2022 while production growth rose to a four-year high. There was one negative factor to keep an eye on, however, with the manufacturing employment subindex contracting for the first time since July of last year.
The service sector showed better than expected results as well, with April’s Services PMI rising to 51.3, a notable rebound from the 49.6 seen in March and well above the average estimate of a much more modest rebound to 50.3. However, it is worth keeping in mind that this is still significantly weaker than what was seen for the majority of the last two years. Perhaps the most interesting takeaway, service sector firms increased their selling prices by the most in nearly four years, something certainly worth keeping in mind ahead of April inflation readings. With stronger than expected prints in both the manufacturing and service sector, April Composite PMI rose to 52.0, well above the expected 50.5 and marking the strongest reading since January.
U.S. exporters sold 51.8 million bushels of old crop (‘25/’26) corn in the week ending 4/16, right in line with expectations, but the more notable takeaway was the significantly stronger than expected new crop (‘26/’27) sales of 17.3 million bushels. Unsurprisingly, Mexico was again the feature here as we continue to send record volumes of corn their direction amid the ongoing border closure and subsequent rise in feed demand in the country. Rumors and market expectations continue to build around a potential phased reopening of feeder cattle imports in low-risk regions, particularly through Arizona, though USDA has yet to provide any formal update. Elsewhere, weekly milo (sorghum) sales jumped to a 10-week high at 7.6 million bushels, almost all to China. Could this be another prime opportunity for non-soybean commodity commitments in a potential U.S./China trade deal next month?
Cumulative U.S. all wheat sales have officially reached USDA’s 900-million-bushel target for the ‘25/’26 marketing year following net sales of 4.7 million bushels in the week ending 4/16, now up an impressive 15.2% versus cumulative sales at this point last year. Weekly soybean sales came in right in line with expectations at 13.4 million bushels, a four-week high, with Egypt the top destination. However, cumulative soybean export sales of 1.415 billion bushels remain down 17.8% year-over-year and continue to lag the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s now lower 1.540-billion-bushel export target. There were rumors of Chinese buyers sniffing around for more U.S. soybeans this week, but it sounds like that business went to cheaper supply from Argentina. Weekly sales on the soy products side were a bit weak, with soybean meal coming in at a net 162.3k metric tons, a 15-week low, and soybean oil sales a net 1.5k metric tons.
- Grains & Oilseeds
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