Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 6

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Mon, 06 Apr 2026, 17:05

Today's Perspective Video: Hormuz Watch as Trump Ultimatum Nears

April 6 - And the war continues. Iran rejected the U.S. peace proposal today, and likely any other peace proposal near term as it tries to extend things as long as possible, believing that time is on its side. President Trump's 8 p.m. ET Tuesday ultimatum for reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, so the likelihood of escalation is rising as we approach that time tomorrow. The Trump Administration posted this morning on social media a video of President Trump stating, "We could leave right now and it would take them 15 years to rebuild what they have... But I want to finish it up. Iran CANNOT have a nuclear weapon. They are lunatics -- and you can't put nuclear weapons in the hands of a lunatic." President Trump preceded that comment by saying that we have "many" options, but the bottom line is that the risk of escalation remains present.

Stocks actually firmed into midday, despite the above rhetoric. The VIX slipped lower to trade near 24, while the dollar index continues to trade near 100.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.33%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.85%. WTI crude oil is trading near $113 per barrel, while Brent trades near $109 per barrel. Kansas City wheat posted double-digit losses on improved moisture in the Plains, although a third of the belt is expected to remain dry, while corn and soybean prices posted modest gains at midday, supported by expectations that USDA will increase corn export and soybean crush targets in its WASDE crop report on Thursday.

USDA inspected 78.8 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending April 2, it's third largest weekly total of the marketing year, as shown below. It also inspected 28.6 million bushels of soybeans, 12.3 million bushels of wheat, and 2.3 million bushels of grain sorghum for export shipment during the week. All of the grain sorghum was destined for China, along with 18.3 million bushels of soybeans. Yet, marketing year to date grain sorghum shipments to all destinations continues to fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 19 million bushels, and the deficit is slowly growing.

Marketing year to date corn export inspections total a record pace of 1.908 billion bushels, up 503 million bushels or 36% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31 by 297 million bushels, although that surplus is slowly shrinking. Nonetheless, the below graphic shows just how impressive this year's corn export demand has been. The pace slowed a month ago, but it's regaining momentum again. Even so, the sales pace has slowed notably as Argentine new crop supplies began hitting the global market, which suggests that we'll see U.S. shipments slow in the months ahead, especially if Brazil grows a good crop.

Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total a seven-year low 1.127 billion bushels, down 401 million bushels or 26% from the previous year's pace. The total still falls short of the year-to-date seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31 by 96 million bushels, but that deficit continues to shrink as China takes shipment of the nearly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans that it purchased this winter. Thus far it has taken shipment of 344.1 million bushels or 9.4 million metric tons. Once shipment of those soybeans to China concludes, we'll likely see the weekly pace fall back below the seasonal pace again, likely rendering USDA's export target too lofty without additional commitments in the anticipated May trade agreement when President Trump travels to Beijing.

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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