Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 7

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 07 Apr 2026, 16:25

Today's Perspective Video: Dry Weather Threatens Portions of U.S. Wheat As Planting Season Begins For Corn

April 7 – Stocks remain in the red at mid-day, though the major indexes have seen a slight rebound from their lows earlier this morning. The VIX remains elevated as all eyes remain on potential signs of de-escalation ahead of tonight’s 8:00 PM Eastern deadline, rising as high as 27.3 earlier in the session but now hovering around the 26.3 level. The dollar continues to have a quiet inside session, currently down 0.1% at the time of writing as it trades just below the 99.9 mark. Treasuries have also had a largely quiet day, though they’ve moved slightly in the green at midday as 10-year yields trade just above 4.35% and 2-year yields trade just below 3.86%. Interestingly, Brent crude oil futures have dipped into the red at midday, hovering around $109.40/barrel (-0.3%) though WTI continues to push higher as it trades near $115.40/barrel (+2.5%). The ags have turned notably lower through the session, led down by soybeans. At the end of the day, the big question in the broader markets is what happens between now and tonight, potentially setting up for an interesting finish to the trading session as uncertainty abounds.

ADP’s Weekly Employment Change saw its largest rise since its inception in September, with private employers adding an average of 26k jobs per week in the four-week period ending March 21, up sharply from the 15.25k in the previous period. This is the third consecutive week of hiring growth, adding to the optimism seen following last Friday’s stronger than expected March Non-Farm Payrolls report. With this still being a relatively new metric, more eyes will be on Thursday’s Jobless Claims data as traders assess the health of the U.S. labor market in the context of a Fed with opposing pressures on its dual mandate.

U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.4% month-on-month in February to $315.5 billion, coming in below analysts' expectations of a 1.0% decline and marking the sharpest drop since October. January was also revised down slightly to show a -0.5% month-on-month drop from the -0.4% previously reported. However, much of this headline weakness was driven by a sharp 5.4% drop in transportation equipment, primarily due to a 28.6% fall in non-defense aircraft and parts. Excluding transportation, however, durable goods orders rose by 0.8% month-on-month in February, soundly beating analyst estimates of a slighter 0.4% rise. Again, January’s durable goods orders excluding transportation were revised slightly lower to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase from the 0.4% previously reported, but February’s rise marked the 10^th consecutive monthly increase for the metric. Drilling down even further to U.S. orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business investment in equipment, February saw a 0.6% month-on-month rise, reversing course from a downwardly revised 0.4% drop in January and beating analyst estimates of a more moderate 0.4% monthly uptick.

Unsurprisingly, U.S. consumer sentiment eroded in April amid the ongoing uptick in fuel prices and uncertainty in the wake of the war in the Middle East, with this morning’s RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index falling to 42.8 from the 47.5 seen in March, well below analyst expectations of an improvement to 48.1 and marking the lowest reading for the index since June 2024. Diving into the index’s components, the Personal Financial Outlook fell 7.6% month-on-month but remained narrowly in optimistic territory at 50.2 (above 50 indicates optimism, below 50 indicates pessimism), though that was also the worst reading since June 2024. Near-term economic prospects continued to drop, with the 6-Month Economic Outlook subindex falling 10.5% month-on-month to 38.5. Additionally, consumer views of the effectiveness of government economic policies declined 11.8% month-on-month to sit at 39.8, the lowest reading for the subindex since October 2024. Traders will get another look at the current sentiment of the American consumer to end the week, with University of Michigan’s preliminary April Consumer Sentiment data due out on Friday morning.

Consumer inflation expectations also jumped in response to the uptick in fuel prices in March following the outbreak of war, with this morning’s update from the New York Fed showing median year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 3.4% from the 3.0% seen in February, matching the high seen over the last year in December and September. As can be seen in the chart below, for better or worse, one of the most common drivers of U.S. economic sentiment is their price at the gas pump. Since 2020, the correlation between the New York Fed’s year-ahead consumer inflation expectations and the U.S. monthly average retail gasoline price is a relatively strong 0.67. With retail gasoline prices continuing to rise through late March and still rising in early April, it would be difficult to see consumer level inflation expectations not rising again in the month ahead. The market will get its first look at post-war inflation with March CPI data due out on Friday, though it’s worth keeping in mind that the CPI is generally slower to respond to these shocks than many expect, and the real question will be the duration of the conflict and downstream inflationary impact in the months ahead.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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