Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 13 Aug 2025, 17:07

August 13 - Many stocks hit record highs this morning, before pulling back from those highs. We've had a good earnings season for the most part, and the market is convinced that we're going to see a rate cut in September, with some even bold enough to speculate that it could drop by 50 basis points, although I doubt that. Yet, that enthusiasm has the VIX - Wall Street's fear index - trading at its lowest levels since Christmas of last year near 14. The dollar index is trading near 97.7 at midday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.68%. Crude oil prices are more than 1% lower again today, while the grain and oilseed sector has been mixed today, in quieter trading than what we saw yesterday.

Soybean futures saw some follow-through buying following yesterday's USDA crop report, but gains have been more modest today. Corn prices traded both sides of unchanged today, but the key here to this point is that the December contract continues to hold above yesterday's session low. Yesterday's low becomes a pivotal barometer to watch as we measure trader sentiment going forward. Wheat prices have been mixed to weaker, with traders keeping their eyes on the corn pit.

Let's go back to talk about yesterday's soybean balance sheet from USDA, as shown below. USDA slashed 2.1 million from soybean planted acres yesterday, reducing the impact of its record yield estimate of 53.6 bushels per acre. That resulted in ending stocks remaining low at 290 million bushels, which is just 6.7% of anticipated use. First, the weeks ahead will be pivotal in determining this year's soybean yield. The crop could still get even bigger, or it could get notably smaller if we heat things up and dry things up. A lot of yield will be determined over the next several weeks. There's far more risk to the market on the supply side if the weather does not cooperate, which is one reason why we've seen soybean prices rally since the report was released yesterday.

Now let's focus on the demand side of the ledger. USDA is assuming strong domestic demand as we run as close as possible to full crush capacity with some time for maintenance down time. That could still change if the EPA surprises us, but let's assume that it doesn't. The bigger question is on export demand. USDA has marketing year 2025-26 soybean exports at 1.705 billion bushels, down from 1.875 billion bushels in the current year that ends on August 31. The big wild card is China. It imported 841 million bushels from us in the current year. Technically, it is possible for it to import zero from us in the next marketing year, or anything in between, but we have limited ability to expand that domestic crush number above its current level to offset any lost exports. That's the big wildcard going forward for soybeans.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

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Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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