Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 22 Aug 2024, 16:23

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

August 22 - The major stock indices are working on bearish reversals on the charts for today, even as policymakers attending the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium lined up for media interviews to support rate cuts. Yet, economic data released mid-session this morning was a bit better than expected, arguing against the scope of cuts currently priced into the market. Final PMI Composite numbers came in higher than expected, while existing home sales also beat expectations, although they are still low. Nonetheless, stocks are drifting lower at midday. The VIX is trading near above 17 at this hour, while the dollar index is following Treasury yields higher, trading near 101.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.86%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.01%.

Crude oil prices are 2% higher at midday, while the grain and oilseed markets are notably lower. Momentum-trading Algos amplified losses in wheat prices after they broke through previous multi-year lows, while corn and soybean prices are moving lower to discourage acreage in the South American growing season ahead, while also trying to uncover more demand to absorb the big crops being confirmed by crop tours. Meanwhile, the protein complex put together a nice recovery bounce today, following recent sharp losses. That said, the overriding influence continues to be one of commodity deflation, except for those commodities that have a specific story.

The focus is now on the new-crop balance sheet, with this week's Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour providing insight into the supply side of the balance sheet and USDA providing insight into the demand side with export sales data. USDA reports that exporters sold a net 61.6 million bushels of new-crop soybeans in the week ending August 15, bringing total new-crop commitments to 277 million bushels as the start of the new marketing year approaches on September 1. China and "unknown destinations" accounted for 50.8 million bushels of the past week's new-crop sales. The 10-year average for new-crop commitments by all destinations in the first week of the new marketing year is 38.7% of final export shipments. USDA's 2024-25 export target is 1.850 billion bushels. That would suggest that new-crop commitments need to reach 706.7 million bushels by September 5th to match the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. That leaves roughly a 430 million bushel gap to fill in the next three weeks of data to get back on pace. It can happen, but so far we appear to be falling short.

New-crop corn commitments in the week ending August 15 totaled 50.8 million bushels, with Mexico accounting for 34.4 million bushels of that total. That brings total new-crop corn commitments by all destinations to 312 million bushels. The 10-year average for commitments in the first week of the new marketing year is 25.5% of final shipments. USDA's current target for the new marketing year is 2.300 billion bushels. As such, we would need to see commitments for the new marketing year total 586.5 million bushels as of September 5. That leaves a gap of 274.5 million bushels to fill over the next three weeks data. Again, it could happen, but we're certainly not on pace at this point to hit USDA's target for the new year.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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