Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 26

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 26 Aug 2025, 16:57

August 26 – Stocks have rebounded and moved back into the green at mid-day, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher while the VIX remains subdued below the 15 level. The stock market has plenty to digest this week, with the tech sector keeping a close eye on tomorrow’s earnings report from Nvidia, while a plethora of economic data is on tap in the days ahead as well, capped off on Friday by an update on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan and an update on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, PCE. The dollar is down slightly at mid-day, hovering around 98.16 at the time of writing after initially trading higher overnight. Treasury yields are also in the red, with 10-year yields at 4.26% and 2-year yields at 3.68%. Crude oil prices have wiped out yesterday’s gains, with the nearby WTI contract down by over 2% at the time of writing to trade near the $63.40 level, while the ags are narrowly mixed.

U.S. consumer confidence beat expectations in August, according to this morning’s release from the Conference Board. The reading came in at 97.4, well above consensus estimates of a drop to 96.2. July was revised upwards from its original 97.2 up to 98.7, meaning this morning’s reading would’ve been an improvement from the month prior if not for the upward revision, but does mark a decline from the now higher print. As with the more popular metric from the University of Michigan, Conference Board’s consumer confidence has rebounded notably after bottoming out at a nearly 5-year low of 86.0 in April amid the initial peak of tariff fears. Given the fact that domestic consumption accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, the improving confidence at the consumer level is certainly a welcomed sign for our economy.

Home prices in the U.S. are showing signs of slowdown, with this morning’s Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index falling 0.2% month-over-month in June, sharper than the -0.1% expected, while the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell by 0.3% month-over-month, also sharper than the -0.2% expected. In year-over-year terms, the FHFA Index showed 2.6% growth in June, down from 2.9% in May, while the Case-Shiller Index showed 2.1% growth, down from 2.8% in May. This marks the weakest rise in the FHFA Index since February 2012 and the weakest in the Case-Shiller Index since July 2023. A combination of high mortgage rates and ongoing economic uncertainty has kept many prospective buyers on the sidelines, leading to a rise in total U.S. housing inventories to their highest level since pre-pandemic. Home prices have held up better-than-expected throughout 2025 thus far, but it will be interesting to keep an eye on these readings moving forward as more signs of slowdown appear.

U.S. soybean ratings saw an unexpected 1% rise week-over-week, now back at 69% good/excellent versus market expectations of a dip to 67%. Given the dry stretch much of the U.S. soybean crop has seen in August, most notably in the eastern Midwest and Delta, it was a bit of a surprise to see soybean ratings return to where they sat to start the month. Regardless, this still represents the highest good/excellent ratings at this time for the U.S. soybean crop since 2020 and the highest condition index seen at this time since 2016.

Similarly, U.S. corn ratings outperformed expectations by holding steady at 71% good/excellent, maintaining the highest for that metric and also the condition index at this time since 2016, keeping expectations for fall harvest to be massive. Said harvest will be upon us before we know it, with the nation’s corn crop pegged at 7% mature on yesterday’s report while 4% of soybeans were dropping leaves. This brings the demand side of the equation more and more into focus, with corn export demand remaining red hot but the elephant in the room being where all these soybeans will go if no agreement is reached with China before combines start rolling in the Midwest. Exports to China are traditionally our top outlet for soybeans during and right after harvest, but we still officially have zero bushels sold to them at this point, leading cumulative ‘25/’26 soybean export sales to lag last year by 22.4% and the previous 5-year average sales pace by 58.7%. China’s top negotiator, Li Chenggang, reportedly coming to the U.S. for trade talks this week is certainly a step in the right direction, but no major breakthroughs are expected, meaning we’ll need to continue monitoring the situation closely.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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