USDA Report Estimates - June 2026
USDA Grain S&D Report - Trade Estimates for the monthly publication
Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 8
By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
August 8 – Stocks are looking to end the week on a strong note with the major indexes all pushing higher at mid-day while the VIX falls back below the 16 mark for the first time since last Thursday. The dollar remains narrowly in the green, still trading around the 98.2 level. Treasuries remain narrowly in the green as well, with 10-year yields trading just below 4.29% and 2-year yields trading just above 3.76%. Crude oil fell this morning but has since rallied back, with nearby WTI dipping below $63 for the first time in two months earlier in the session but now trading near $64.30 at the time of writing. The grains remain quietly mixed, mostly within a penny or two of unchanged, with the most notable price movement in the ag sector today being the sharp reversal to the downside in both live and feeder cattle futures.
The market will get a fresh look at inflation next week, with July CPI due out on Tuesday and PPI due out on Thursday. While inflation data has, generally speaking, remained cooler than anticipated amid the ongoing tariff saga in 2025, we have started to see some signs of growing price pressures more recently. Last week’s PCE data for the month of June showed the sharpest monthly increase in four months, while the last headline CPI reading came in slightly hotter than expected to mark the sharpest monthly increase since January; at the same time, though, last month’s PPI was notably cooler than expected. With expectations for the Fed growing more dovish, as outlined this morning, look for the inflation story to return to prominence in the months ahead, especially if we do see more signs of inflationary pressures in upcoming releases. Tying this back to the ag markets, grain bulls would likely welcome another uptick in next week’s inflation readings amid ongoing heavy shorts from managed money, as they typically like to get long the commodities during times of rising inflation.
Gold futures hit another record high today in the wake of tariffs on imports of 1-kg and 100-ounce gold bars being announced. Most gold imports had originally been exempt from tariffs, but a ruling letter dated July 31 stated that these specific sizes of bars should be classified under a separate customs code, removing them from said exemptions. This is of particular concern to Switzerland, the world's largest gold refiner, whose new 39% tariff rate went into effect yesterday. Despite their location, the country is not a member of the E.U. and thus would need their own trade agreement with the U.S. to avoid such tariffs. After failing to reach an agreement during Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter’s trip to the U.S. earlier this week, Swiss industrial bodies and government officials have expressed their commitment to continuing talks in order to avoid these tariffs, as the impact on the nation’s economy could be sizable.
Private exporters reported sales of 125,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for the ‘25/’26 marketing year per this morning’s USDA flash sales announcement. This follows yesterday's flash sales announcement of a combined 211,680 MT (8.33 million bushels) of ‘25/’26 corn sales split essentially evenly between Mexico and Guatemala as U.S. new crop corn export demand remains red hot. After yesterday's update from USDA, cumulative ‘25/’26 corn sales are now more than double where they sat at this time last year, remaining at their strongest pace since 2021’s record. This morning’s sale being destined for unknown destinations adds to a common theme seen this year. As shown in the graphic below, cumulative U.S. new crop corn sales now total just under 120 million bushels, their second-highest level at this time on record, trailing only ‘11/’12. While this has at times fueled speculation of Chinese buying interest, a more likely explanation is the ongoing uncertainty created by the ever-changing tariff picture leading traders to opt for more flexibility by leaving destinations unspecified.
- Grains & Oilseeds
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