Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for December 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 22 Dec 2025, 18:22

December 22 - Gold prices surged 2% to a fresh record high on rising geopolitical tensions, while silver was close behind with a record high post. Yet, stocks added to recent gains as we approach the Christmas break and the end of the year, with AI optimism seeping back into sentiment following the recent correction. The VIX slipped to a one-year low near 14 at midday, while the dollar index traded near 98.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.51%. Crude oil prices are up 2% as the United States increases its crackdown on Venezuelan sanctioned oil, and as attacks on Russian energy infrastructure increase, while the grain and oilseed markets remain mostly higher. Some short covering was seen in the grains ahead of traders taking an extended holiday break just in case commodity shipment in the Black Sea becomes more hazardous during the period. Some end of the year position squaring is also occurring as traders prepare to take an extended time off in the days ahead.

USDA released more export data today. It continues to roll with its catchup plan with weekly export sales reports following the government shutdown, releasing data this morning for the week ending December 4. We'll get export sales data for the week ending December 11 tomorrow morning. USDA remained current all the way through the government shutdown with the export inspection data, so this morning's inspection data included the numbers for the week ending December 18. In summary, the sales data is getting caught up, while the inspection data is essentially current. As such, there are some takeaways from the data.

USDA inspected 68.7 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending December 18, as shown below. That brings marketing year to date corn export inspections to a record for the date of 955 million bushels, up 385 million bushels or 68% from the previous year's pace. USDA's target for the year is a record high 3.200 billion bushels, but inspections for the year to date already exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit that target by a robust 294 million bushels, and the gap continues to widen. The seasonal pace picks up here in the weeks ahead, so it's yet to be seen whether we can maintain the gap into the second and third quarters of the year. Exporters sold a strong 58.2 million bushels of corn in the week ending December 4, second only for the week to the 58.9 million sold in 2016. That brings marketing year to date corn export sales to a record pace of 1.804 billion bushels, up 421 million bushels or 30% from the previous year's pace. The sales to date total exceeded the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 281 million bushels. As such, shipments should remain strong for a while.

USDA inspected 32 million bushels of soybeans for export shipment in the week ending December 18, bringing marketing year to date inspections to 536 million bushels, down 457 million bushels or 46% from the previous year's pace. The year-to-date total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 242 million bushels, and the deficit continues to grow. Exporters sold 57 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in the week ending December 4, including 37 million bushels to China. This brings marketing year to date soybean export sales to all destinations to 859 million bushels, down 506 million bushels or 37% from the previous year's pace, and down 261 million bushels from the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year. That latter deficit is shrinking as China steps up purchases, but will it be enough? China committed to importing 12 million metric tons, or 441 million bushels, from us in the current year. I'm more confident now that China will purchase 12 mmt in the current marketing year, but I'm still skeptical about whether it will take shipment of all 12 mmt in the current year.

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