Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 21

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 18:29

Today's Perspective Video: No Greenland Invasion & Soybean Export Math

January 21 - Overnight weakness in stock futures turned into strength this morning when President Trump spoke before roughly 60 heads of state in Davos, Switzerland, detailing out his objectives regarding Greenland, while assuring them that he will not forcibly take it with military strength. He laid out the argument for negotiating a price for Greenland that would be a win for Greenland, a win for Denmark, a win for Europe, and a win for the United States. The European Commission suspended work on the U.S. - Europe trade agreement following his remarks, reflecting that they're still not happy with President Trump. However, the financial markets saw their concerns ease, and that eased headwinds for the broader markets today.

Stocks came well off their morning highs, but they largely remain positive at midday. The VIX Is trading near 19 at this hour, while the dollar index is trading near 98.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.27%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.59%. Crude oil prices are modestly higher at midday, while the grain and oilseed sector is mixed. Corn and wheat prices are mixed to weaker, while the oilseed complex is firmer. This is the time of year when fresh news to sustain rallies is difficult to find in most years, and corn and wheat prices reflect that. Harsh winter cold in the northern winter wheat belt in the coming days, and ice in the south, pose some risk for the crop, but we are amply supplied, snow is protecting much of the northern crop, and the south quickly warms behind the storm to melt the ice.

But the strength of today's market is in the oilseed complex, with soybean oil leading the way with prices up 2.7% at this hour to nearly five-month highs. The rally in soybean oil started getting legs last week, continuing through today's session to bring us to the highest level since late August. We're flush with soyoil currently, but that's primarily because the nation's biomass diesel industry is on hold, waiting for the Environmental Protection Agency to release the final regulations for the nation's biofuel program. There's a cautious optimism that those final regulations will be positive for demand for feedstocks going into the production of biomass diesel, including soybean oil. Some in the industry believe that we "could" see the EPA send the final regulations to the White Houses Office of Management and Budget for approval within days, starting the clock for when they would go public. The general expectation is that we could possibly see those regulations released as quickly as two to three weeks after the OMB gets them, although it could take longer. Fund managers want to be in position ahead of that, which is creating support for prices currently.

The rally in soybean oil prices created a gift opportunity for many crushers to lock in crush margins for the months ahead, supporting strong crush activity, and therefore demand for soybeans. Crush activity continues to come in stronger than expected, and much stronger than projected by USDA at the beginning of the marketing year. The graphic below shows monthly crush activity for members of the National Oilseed Processors Association, which historically accounts for roughly 95% of total crush. Marketing year to date estimated total crush through the first third of the marketing year totals 893 million bushels, which exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 38 million bushels, and the gap continues to grow. The EPA's final regulations will determine whether we see that gap collapse going forward, or expand. Just the prospect of it expanding creates a sense of optimism in the industry, but biomass diesel producers will remain on the sideline until they know for sure. Hopefully, we won't have to wait much longer.

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