Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 30 Jan 2024, 17:31

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Senior Fertilizer Analyst

January 30 - Stocks are mixed at mid-day on the back of mixed economic news and earnings results, with the Dow Jones slightly higher, the S&P 500 roughly unchanged, and the Nasdaq in the red at the time of writing. The VIX has cooled throughout the day, falling back near the 13.4 level. The dollar remains slightly weaker, hovering below 103.3 after pushing above 103.4 earlier in the session. Treasuries have firmed from their morning lows in the wake of a stronger than expected U.S. jobs market, with 10-year yields pushing near 4.08% and 2-year yields now in the green above 4.37%. Crude oil is holding onto morning gains thus far, with the nearby WTI contract hovering near $78/barrel at the time of writing. A surprising turnaround Tuesday is being seen in the grain markets, with the entire complex now in the green despite a lack of fresh positive fundamental news, following an ugly finish to last week and start to this week.

This morning's JOLTs report showed continued strength in the U.S. labor market, with December U.S. job openings rising to 9.026M, sharply above forecasts of 8.75M and above November's upwardly-revised 8.925M. After some signs of cooling this fall, December marks the highest job openings since September. The continued strength in the U.S. labor market has been a major driving force behind the inflationary pressures seen in the U.S. due in large part to wage inflation. Today's much stronger than expected job openings reading provides the hawks additional ammunition to point to as a sign of the need to hold rates higher for longer.

Conversely, U.S. job quits fell to their lowest since January 2021 at 3.392M, down from the 3.471M in November and below market expectations of a moderate decline to 3.45M. This helps the dove's case, with record quits in recent years largely driven by leaving current positions for higher paying jobs, adding to wage inflation. The quits rate is often viewed as a measure of confidence in the labor market, meaning the slowdown in employees voluntarily leaving jobs is a potential reflection of a changing perception of opportunities at the employee level. The mixed results of today's JOLTs report highlights the challenge in front of the Fed as they gather today. Some signs of weakness have emerged in certain sectors of the U.S. economy, but overall continued economic strength keeps fears of a resurgence of inflationary pressures present, forcing the Fed to walk a tight rope in the year ahead.

U.S. consumer confidence surged to start the new year, with this morning's Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rising to 114.8 in January, well above December's 108 and marking the highest level seen since December 2021. This was the third consecutive monthly improvement in consumer confidence and coincides well with the firm consumer spending data seen to finish out 2023. Today's strength could be an indicator of some of that firmness continuing to start 2024. As with the above labor data, this is a bit of a double-edged sword for the Fed. The continued resilience of the U.S. economy is improving consumer confidence, but that could also lead to persistence in inflationary pressures if that leads to continued strength in spending. As the data continues to roll in, parsing through commentary from Fed members following this week's meeting gains more and more importance as the market attempts to gauge their reaction and project their course accordingly.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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