Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 08 Jul 2025, 16:59

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Today's Perspective Video: Commodities Face Pivotal Tariff Week

July 8 - Most of the reciprocal tariffs have been announced for key trading partners, and yet the stock market is holding up relatively well, as opposed to the total panic that crashed the market in April when they were first announced. The equities are mixed in relatively quiet trade today, with the VIX slipping back below 17, while the dollar firms to trade near 97.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading strong at 4.42%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.91%. Crude oil prices are roughly 1% higher, while the grain and oilseed markets continue Monday's weakness on big crop expectations.

USDA puts 74% of the U.S. corn crop at Good to Excellent Condition, while Iowa specifically is at 86% Good to Excellent - some of the highest ratings on record for early July. Lower condition ratings are seen in the eastern Midwest, but not low enough to substantially drag down the national crop. StoneX will release its first customer-based yield model on August 1, which will be our official yield estimate to start the season. Our customers have traditionally done an excellent job of providing insight into the size of the corn and soybean crops.

The market is currently trading yield models that are based on crop condition ratings, and in some cases weather, satellite data, and other factors are also programmed in. The trade is focused on the supply side of the balance sheet currently, and the current crop ratings argue for above-trend yields. That could all change with the weather over the coming 45 days, but it's the best data available for now. The graphic below is not designed to forecast yields. But it does show a historical perspective of where final yields came in for the U.S. corn crop as a percent of trend, based on early July crop condition ratings. The trend yield here is calculated simply on the years from the 2000s that are in the data set. The current year is plotted to provide some perspective. Note that several years saw final yields that were notably above trend as a percent, relative to what this year's discussions have been thus far. Forecast models look favorable for pollination, so then it will come down to the August grain fill that will determine kernel size. Continued seasonably mild temperatures for the Midwest would be expected to slow the maturation process resulting in larger kernels and larger above-trend anomalies. On the other hand, a hotter than normal August would be expected to speed maturation resulting in smaller kernels, with yields under-performing. Yield models are currently well above trend, so will USDA raise its yield estimate in Friday's WASDE crop report? I don't expect it to. USDA doesn't like to change yields in July. Looking back to 1993, USDA has raised its corn yield estimate in July just 3 times, and not since 2003. It has never raised its soybean yield estimate in the July WASDE report during that period. It's lowered its corn yield 6 times and soybean yield 5 times during that period, but that isn't currently in the cards, with crop ratings running above average.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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