Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 24 Mar 2026, 16:07

March 24 – Stocks have traded both sides of unchanged today, with the major indexes mixed at the time of writing as the Dow Jones leads the way higher, up roughly 0.4% on the day, while the S&P 500 is more narrowly in the green, up 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rounds out the bottom, down 0.15%. The VIX has cooled from its morning highs, now hovering around 25.8 as the market digests ongoing back-and-forth headlines regarding peace prospects in the Middle East. To that end, crude oil prices continue to push higher today, with nearby WTI and Brent futures both up over 3% on the day to trade around $91.70 and $102.80/barrel, respectively. The dollar is rebounding from yesterday’s losses to trade back above the 99.4 mark after dipping to a nearly two-week low around 98.9 yesterday. Treasuries are in the green again after posting fresh eight-month highs yesterday, with 10-year yields trading just above 4.38% at the time of writing while 2-year yields are trading just below 3.90%. Meanwhile, the ags are generally quietly mixed.

Winter wheat conditions on the Plains largely declined in yesterday's state-level reporting, with top producer Kansas dropping 6% week-on-week to now sit at 46% good/excellent. This is well below the state’s final official fall rating of 62% good/excellent back in late November, while also marking the lowest ratings for the current week since 2023. Similarly, neighboring Colorado’s winter wheat ratings declined 5% week-over-week to now sit at 24% good/excellent, while Oklahoma was down 4% week-over-week to sit at 14% good/excellent. Further south, Texas winter wheat ratings rose 1% week-over-week, though remained quite low at only 16% good/excellent. Conditions in all of these states will be worth keeping a close eye on in the weeks ahead as agronomists assess the impact of the recent extreme low and high temperatures. Forecasts don’t show much relief for the growing dryness in the region in the week ahead either, though the 11-15 day window does show chances of beneficial rains coming.

USDA will publish their annual Prospective Plantings report one week from today (3/31 @ 11:00 AM Central), setting the tone for the spring as the trade turns its eyes to 2026/27 balance sheets. After seeing final U.S. corn plantings rise to an 89-year high at 98.788 million acres last year, the big question is not whether we see corn acres decline in 2026, but rather by how much. The spike in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer values due to the ongoing war in the Middle East have brought this question further into the spotlight, given the significantly greater input needs of corn relative to soybeans, but it’s worth keeping in mind that a fair amount of the survey responses for next week’s report were likely collected prior to this spike.

In attempting to come up with estimates for next week’s report, I’ve analyzed a handful of variables across the last few decades. Long story short, when trying to model it, the stronger relationships came with the share of corn/soy acres in relation to each other rather than just the totals themselves. After ruling others out, the three main variables I’m using are Soy/Corn Insurance Price Ratio (simply dividing the two), Prior Year Final Soy Share (percentage of soy in combined corn/soy acres on Jan WASDE of previous crop year to capture the rotational effect), and Nitrogen Affordability (combined urea/UAN/anhydrous ammonia affordability relative to new crop corn on a per pound of nitrogen basis during the last half of February – first half of March). The individual correlations of the three variables separately are shown in the charts below, along with a chart showing the model estimates compared to the realized values in those years. The weightings in the model are based on how strong the correlations are (i.e. Insurance Price Ratio gets the most weight, then Prior Year Final Soy Share, then Nitrogen Affordability).

In the end, the model suggests a 52.5% corn share and 47.5% soybean share for 2026 based on the three variables outlined above. Using a nice clean combined corn/soy acreage number like 180 (assuming smaller wheat acres in 2026) would generate an estimate of 94.5 million acres of corn / 85.5 million soybeans. Obviously, modeling this way allows for adjustments based on total combined corn/soy acreage expectations. We’ve seen a handful of private estimates both above and below this mark make headlines in the last week or two, but the market will get a more complete look when the major wire services publish the full range of estimates in the days ahead. General sentiment at the farm level still feels heavier inclined towards corn regardless of current economics, which adds another layer of intrigue to the upcoming report.

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