CBOT Grains Daily Options Report
Recap of day's options activity and data.
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- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 3
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
Today's Perspective Video: Revised Look at Elevated Geopolitical Risks
March 3 - Stocks again firmed through the morning, similar to Monday's action, although the major stock indices continue to post more than 1% losses at midday. The VIX is trading near 23, reflecting the elevated level of anxiety on Wall Street, while the dollar is trading near 99.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.07%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.51%. Crude oil prices are roughly 6% higher on the day, although they are trading a couple of dollars per barrel off their session high at this hour. The grain and oilseed sector once again traded lower during the day session following a higher overnight session, although they are trading mixed to higher at midday.
Iran knows that it is up against a far larger war machine. It's goal is to prolong the agony. It never wanted to take on the United States directly, at least not until it had its nuclear warhead. Intelligence indicated that Iran was within a few days of having sufficient levels of enriched uranium for a nuclear warhead, triggering the action by Israel and the United States. Iran had declared many times that it wanted to destroy Israel and the United States, and they took it at its word. That doesn't mean that the path forward will be easy. The greatest threat going forward is not the completion of the current objectives of destroying Iran's military capability, but rather the risk caused by the power vacuum within Iran. That opens the door to the possibility of a prolonged civil war that could continue to destabilize the area.
Spring planting typically picks up momentum across the South in March, with field preparation advancing north during the month. Current forecasts suggest that we'll see good rains across central and eastern portions of the Midwest to hopefully refill dry subsoils in the weeks ahead, but what about the summer? The current forecast models for the summer months are based on initializations based on February conditions. The models start with what is expected for sea surface temperatures, particularly in areas of the central and northern Pacific. The lower-left graphic below indicates what the ECMWF model is currently anticipating for the Northern Hemisphere summer, with the primary feature being above normal readings for sea surfaces across much of the Pacific amid a moderately strong El Nino. That then tells the models that we should see elevated odds of a stormy summer across much of the country east of the Rocky Mounts, as illustrated by the graphic on the right. That would tend to suggest high yields, absent of storm damage in localized areas. I might add though that last year's models at this same time called for a dry summer west of the Mississippi River and a wet summer to the east of the river. In reality, we essentially ended up with the opposite. In the end, I'm keeping my eyes on the strength of the anticipated El Nino for this summer, as well as sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska. Solid warming in those areas increase the odds of a favorable Midwest summer, but they certainly do not guarantee such.
- Grains & Oilseeds
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