Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 9

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 09 Mar 2026, 16:50

March 9 – The naming of Mojtaba Khamenei as the next Supreme Leader of Iran has dashed hopes of a quick end to the widening conflict in the Middle East, sparking one of the biggest one-day jumps in crude oil prices in history to start the trading week on a hectic note, though values are now sharply off their overnight highs as nearby WTI trades around $95/barrel (up only ~4%) at the time of writing. The 56-year-old son of former leader Ali Khamenei has been an influential decision maker in the regime behind the scenes for decades and has been characterized by some as even more of a hardliner than his father, with deep ties within the IRGC. He was placed under U.S. sanctions during Trump’s first term back in 2019 and, expectedly, has been termed an “unacceptable” replacement option by President Trump. As such, the move is seen as symbolically defiant by the existing regime. Add in the fact that he just lost his father and wife in the initial strikes last week, and it’s unlikely to see him emerging as a voice pushing for peace or capitulation any time soon.

Russian President Putin was quick to congratulate Khamenei, reaffirming Russia’s “unwavering support for Tehran and solidarity with our Iranian friends.” Obviously, all eyes are on the Middle East at present, but it’s important to keep in mind the growing connections between this conflict and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which is seeing notable escalations of its own and presents its own risks to the commodity markets. Russia’s support has mainly been through words and not actions to this point, however—not a huge surprise with Russian energy and fertilizer producers being among the biggest winners of the escalating Middle East conflict thus far as they see higher prices and renewed demand. Ukraine is not left out of this connection either, with President Zelensky reportedly receiving requests from numerous Gulf nations regarding the purchase of Ukrainian drones to help intercept Iranian attacks, as they’ve been fighting against Iran’s Shahed drones on their own soil for years now. This only adds additional complexity to an already complicated geopolitical situation.

Stocks started the week on an ugly note amid the fears of a widening, prolonged conflict, with the VIX posting an 11-month high above 35 this morning but cooler heads appear to be prevailing into midday, as stocks have recovered significantly through the session to now hang narrowly in the red while the VIX falls to hover around 27.5 at the time of writing. The dollar rose to a three-plus month high near 99.7 earlier in the session but has since fallen back to roughly 99.1, though still solidly in the green. Treasuries are a mixed bag at midday, with 10-year yields narrowly in the red just below 4.13% while 2-year yields up slightly to trade above 3.58%.

The grains and oilseeds have seen an opposite fate so far to start the week, starting the day pushing sharply higher but fading through the session to now sit broadly in the red at midday. This doesn’t feel like a coincidence separate from the paragraph above but rather could be a reflection of nervous managed money looking for perceived safe havens outside of the risk assets and into the broader commodity sector in reaction to the rapidly unfolding geopolitical events. Add in the potential for a rebound in inflation amid the lost offsetting impact of cheap energy and this may be a story worth keeping an eye on in 2026. We saw PPI come in hotter than expected in its last reading and will get a fresh look at consumer level inflation with CPI data due out on Wednesday.

Weekly export inspections in the week ending March 5^th were generally strong in this morning’s update, with all wheat inspections of 18.2 million bushels coming in above their top-end estimate of 16.5 million. Interestingly, China was the top destination for the week’s wheat exports at more than 7 million bushels, the first time they’ve been in the lineup in nearly three months. Today marks exactly one month since we last saw a daily flash sale announcement of soybeans to China, raising doubts regarding their potential for ramping up ‘25/’26 purchases to 20 million metric tons, but it’s worth keeping in mind the potential for other ag commodities ahead of Trump’s expected visit to Beijing in the weeks ahead. Elsewhere, weekly corn export inspections of 59.7 million bushels were within the expected range, with cumulative ‘25/’26 totals up 41.5% year-over-year and remaining comfortably ahead of the seasonal pace needed to surpass USDA’s record 3.3-billion-bushel export target. Soybean inspections came in toward the top-end of their expected range at 32.3 million bushels, though they remain down 29.6% year-over-year on a cumulative basis. Finally, weekly milo inspections were strong again at 8.3 million bushels, once again powered by shipments to China.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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