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By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
Today's Perspective Video: Pivotal Week for the Commodities
May 12 - The tech sector led the way lower for stocks today, amid rising tensions with Iran, hotter than expected core inflation numbers this morning, and rising Treasury yields to reflect that. The VIX continues to trade near 19 at midday, while the dollar index firms to trade near 98.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.45%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.99%, having briefly probed above 4% this morning. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $102 per barrel, while Brent trades near $108 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets came into today with the tailwinds of tighter fertilizer supplies, rising inflation, and deteriorating winter wheat conditions, although today's big WASDE crop report from USDA added more fodder for traders, setting the tone for this week's summit between President Trump and President Xi.
USDA dumped a lot of data today, but the key numbers included the smallest winter wheat crop in more than a half century, with the winter wheat crop coming in 154 million bushels below the average trade guess. That dropped the projected 2026-27 wheat ending stocks estimate to 762 million bushels, down from 935 million bushels this year. Soybean stocks also came in below trade expectations for the new marketing year at 310 million bushels. Global corn stocks for the new year fall to 277.54 mmt, down from the average trade guess of 289.53 mmt, and down nearly 20 mmt from the current year. These new crop numbers now become the filter through which all future news events are interpreted.
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U.S. corn exports could gain support as Black Sea disruption and weaker European production redirect buyers toward alternative suppliers. Rising Brazilian ethanol demand may further strengthen the competitive position of US corn in the 2026 and 2027 marketing year.
July 24 – Stocks have turned mixed into midday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq in the red while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 trade higher. Much of the recent weakness has centered on the tech sector as traders scrutinize the ongoing heavy AI expenditure, with the Nasdaq touching a new low since early May this morning, while other sectors continue to perform well. Meanwhile, the VIX is cooling into midday as it hovers around the 17.9 level at the time of writing. The dollar is effectively unchanged on the day near 101.4 after spiking to a fresh three-week high yesterday. Treasuries are taking a bit of a breather after the recent sharp rise in yields but remain elevated, with 10-year yields at 4.67% and 2-year yields at 4.32%. Crude oil is reversing course from its three-week surge as well, with nearby WTI down ~4.2% on the day to trade near $88.50 and nearby Brent down ~4.8% to trade near $95.80 at the time of writing. Traders will be keeping a close eye on potential escalations in the Middle East over the weekend, balancing reports of renewed attempts at peace talks against ongoing threats from both sides. The ags remain largely mixed, with soybeans and meal in the green but much of the remaining complex in the red, most notably on the wheat side which we’ll dive into in more depth below.
July 24 – Stock futures edged higher overnight, as traders focus on earnings reports, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, Black Sea and in global trade. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 101.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.34%. WTI crude oil pulled back to trade near $90 per barrel, while Brent trades near $98 per barrel, as traders take profits despite further escalation of the war ahead of the weekend. Grain and oilseed prices put in new highs for the move overnight, before breaking lower early this morning on signs of possible negotiations to reopen exports in the Black Sea Region.
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