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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 22

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

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September 22 – The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closed within 1% of their all-time highs yesterday, with stock futures pointing to a quietly higher open at the time of writing. Diplomacy continues to be the theme of the week, with markets pricing in optimism, particularly in the tech sector following encouraging results from the weekend’s meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. It’s also worth noting that Bessent yesterday announced the two sides would be meeting again to discuss AI safety and communication protocols in Shenzen, China in about two months, another potential sign of cooperation instead of escalation. The VIX continues to reflect optimism regarding this week’s various diplomatic pushes as it hovers near its lowest level since early September, starting the day trading just below the 14.7 mark. The dollar is sitting just above unchanged, near 100.46 at the time of writing, touching a fresh two-month high earlier this morning. Treasury yields are quietly lower to start the day, also helping bring some calm to Wall Street, with 2-year yields at 4.747%, 10-year yields at 4.949%, and 30-year yields at 5.279%. Crude oil prices continue their push lower, with nearby WTI down another 1.8% to trade near $90.30 and nearby Brent down 1.6% to trade near $98.70, both roughly two-week lows. The ags are looking at a turnaround Tuesday to kick off the session with most of the complex in the red at the break, led down by the wheat complex. Improving forecasts for planting conditions for the U.S. winter wheat crop are likely having some influence, but I’d also point out the signs of potential increasing U.S. pressure on Ukraine, which we’ll dive into in more depth below, possibly spooking out some managed money length.

President Trump is set to address the U.N. General Assembly this morning, likely the most market-relevant speech today, but keep an eye on Turkish President Erdogan’s address from a Black Sea shipping standpoint, as well as various Middle East leaders as it relates to regional security and conflict mediation, most notably from Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt who are all on today’s schedule. This is likely to be a headline-driven week of trade, and Trump is most likely the biggest potential headline generator. Traders will be listening closely for signals regarding the conflict with Iran, and the spreading regional tensions, as well as negotiations between Russia/Ukraine, and of course U.S./China relations, with Thursday’s meeting between him and Xi being the ultimate feature of the week’s diplomacy.

Today’s most consequential meeting will likely be that between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, with pressure on Ukraine to stop targeting Russian energy infrastructure expected to be a major focus amid sharply higher global fuel prices, most notably diesel. Trump last week announced that the two sides had agreed to stop targeting each other’s energy sectors, but that has not translated into a meaningful change on the ground, with attacks continuing in both directions, including to start this week. The loss of Russian diesel exports has become an important contributor to the global supply squeeze, but the combined loss of refined-product exports from behind the Strait of Hormuz remains larger in outright barrel terms. Furthermore, another major constraint on the diesel market is the inability of several traditional top exporters, particularly China and India, to source normal volumes of imported crude for refining because of the ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. Even so, Washington has substantially more leverage over Ukraine than Russia, creating an incentive to pursue supply relief through pressure on Ukraine even if Ukrainian refinery strikes are not the largest underlying cause of the shortage. It is much harder to envision Russia reciprocating on similar terms, particularly with winter approaching and Moscow having repeatedly used attacks on Ukrainian electricity and heating infrastructure as part of its winter campaigns. Yesterday’s announcement of increasing potash purchases from Belarus adds another complication, if they do in fact come to fruition. Given Belarus being landlocked and having their traditional route to sea through Lithuania still cut off, any meaningful increase in those flows will depend on Russian Baltic Sea ports. That could give the U.S. another practical reason to pressure Ukraine to limit their targeting within Russia.

U.S. corn and soybean ratings held steady at 57% and 58% good/excellent, respectively, on yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, matching analyst expectations on the corn side but coming in 1% better than expected on soybeans. That corn rating is 9% below this time last year but only 2% behind the previous five-year average, while soybeans are down 3% versus last year but in line with the previous five-year average. It was a very wet week for much of the U.S., but harvest progress matched analyst estimates as well, with corn advancing 5% week-on-week to reach 13% complete and soybeans advancing 6% to reach 12% complete. Both of these remain ahead of their average paces at this time, with most of that driven by record fast paces in portions of the Southeast where the rains were not as restrictive.

Winter wheat planting in the U.S. is officially off to its slowest start for the comparable week on record, advancing 9% from the week prior to reach 17% complete nationally. The delays are relatively widespread, with some areas due to excessive wetness and others due to excessive dryness, but the biggest delays are centered in hard red winter wheat country on the Plains. Nebraska (-13%), Oklahoma (-10%), and Colorado (-10%) are all double digits behind their average paces, while Texas (-5%), Kansas (-3%), and South Dakota (-1%) are slightly closer to normal but still lagging. These delays are primarily due to the lack of soil moisture across the Plains at present, though portions of the Southern Plains caught decent rains in the last 24 hours and forecasts show a wet pattern on the way to provide a boost for the region over the next 10 days. That should open the window to play catch-up, with lofty crop insurance prices likely to incentivize a notable uptick in planted acres this fall, but we’ll need to keep an eye on how these forecasts verify. Elsewhere on the wheat side, U.S. spring wheat harvest is effectively wrapped up, reaching 96% complete nationally.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 22

September 22 – The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closed within 1% of their all-time highs yesterday, with stock futures pointing to a quietly higher open at the time of writing. Diplomacy continues to be the theme of the week, with markets pricing in optimism, particularly in the tech sector following encouraging results from the weekend’s meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. It’s also worth noting that Bessent yesterday announced the two sides would be meeting again to discuss AI safety and communication protocols in Shenzen, China in about two months, another potential sign of cooperation instead of escalation. The VIX continues to reflect optimism regarding this week’s various diplomatic pushes as it hovers near its lowest level since early September, starting the day trading just below the 14.7 mark. The dollar is sitting just above unchanged, near 100.46 at the time of writing, touching a fresh two-month high earlier this morning. Treasury yields are quietly lower to start the day, also helping bring some calm to Wall Street, with 2-year yields at 4.747%, 10-year yields at 4.949%, and 30-year yields at 5.279%. Crude oil prices continue their push lower, with nearby WTI down another 1.8% to trade near $90.30 and nearby Brent down 1.6% to trade near $98.70, both roughly two-week lows. The ags are looking at a turnaround Tuesday to kick off the session with most of the complex in the red at the break, led down by the wheat complex. Improving forecasts for planting conditions for the U.S. winter wheat crop are likely having some influence, but I’d also point out the signs of potential increasing U.S. pressure on Ukraine, which we’ll dive into in more depth below, possibly spooking out some managed money length.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 21

September 21 – Diplomacy is in focus to start the week, with world leaders gathering for the U.N. General Assembly kicking off in New York tomorrow and Chinese President Xi Jinping traveling to the U.S. to meet with President Trump in a highly anticipated summit on Thursday. Given the wide array of geopolitical conflicts impacting the broader markets, this round of diplomacy may carry more importance than usual, with traders likely to cling on any signal toward an easing of tensions and resumption of global commodity flow, particularly as it relates to the energy sector. President Trump is expected to meet with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders this week to discuss the ongoing conflict in the region, with a likely increase in urgency amid the ongoing escalations between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis of neighboring Yemen. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is also traveling to the U.S. this week, expected to address the Assembly on Wednesday. Markets will be watching the language of this address, and President Trump’s, for signals of potential de-escalation between the two sides, or for signals of a widening of the conflict. The bigger question in my mind is whether we see direct talks between Trump and Pezeshkian—Trump over the weekend said he was open to such a meeting, but nothing has been confirmed as of this morning. Additionally, Trump is expected to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on Wednesday, carrying significant implications for both the energy and ag sectors. Given the wide range of implications from this week’s diplomacy and existing managed money positions coming in, don’t be surprised by a week of volatile, headline-driven trade.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
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European Farmers Spray More and Harvest Less Than Their Global Peers

Europe's crop yield gap is not a soil problem or a weather problem but a seed problem, built over a decade in which growers elsewhere planted gene edited varieties and European growers could not. The cost of that gap has shown up twice, in heavier herbicide and pesticide use and in thinner harvests.

Editorial Team
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